20 Morgan St · Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$1,294,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,016 sqft · Land · 209 Days on market

Built 2025 0.42 ac lot $429/sqft · 7% above area Est $1205k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BELMONTE QUICK DELIVERY - Premier Saratoga Springs Location! This stunning new-construction home offers an open, light-filled layout with two first-floor bedrooms and hardwood flooring throughout the main living areas, office, and second-floor hallway. The gourmet kitchen is designed to impress, featuring a custom island, ceiling-height cabinetry with crown molding, under-cabinet lighting, quartz countertops, a 48'' wood hood, ceramic tile backsplash, stainless-steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry. The great room showcases soaring vaulted ceilings and a cozy gas fireplace, while the luxurious primary suite includes cathedral ceilings and two custom walk-in closets. An ideal first-floor in-law suite sits conveniently beside a full bath. An open staircase leads to a spacious second-floor loft--perfect for additional living or work-from-home space. Step outside to enjoy the screened porch, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located within walking distance to downtown Saratoga, shopping, dining, and minutes from the Saratoga Race Course. Full construction is underway, with quick delivery expected July 2026!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Custom island
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CUSTOM ISLAND
• CEILING HEIGHT CABINETRY
• UNDER CABINET LIGHTING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WOOD HOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $1.29M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-72k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $423k (67.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (71.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $370k (71.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.7% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; list at $1.29M implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $370,319 (71.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 71% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.29% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.94%
• DSCR: 0.11
• GRM: 29.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,205,000
• List price: $1,294,900
• Delta: 7.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-573,827
• Equity at exit: $193,074

10-year hold

• IRR: -81.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.49×
• Total profit: $-904,354
• Equity at exit: $111,959

Cash invested: $362,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12866

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 29.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,703 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,619 /mo · $19,424/yr
• Insurance: −$540
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$778
• Net cashflow: $-6,023

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,328

Max offer price $423,327

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $323,725
• Closing costs: $38,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Granite St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	3.5	2915	$40,000	$13.72	21d	1	0.51mi
18 C Cherry St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	3.5	3414	$40,000	$11.72	23d	1	0.54mi
55 State St Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	3.0	2216	$20,000	$9.03	14d	1	0.55mi
194 Grand Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	2.5	2200	$28,000	$12.73	44d	1	0.61mi
34 Hyde St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.5	2283	$45,000	$19.71	44d	1	0.79mi
21 Park Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	3.0	2500	$3,250	$1.30	44d	1	1.13mi
162 Lake Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	1.5	2525	$3,500	$1.39	23d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,294,900 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,294,900 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,294,900 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,294,900 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,294,900 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,294,900 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,294,900 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,294,900 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,294,900 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,294,900 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,294,900 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,294,900 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,294,900 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,294,900 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,294,900 Active 191 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $1,294,900 Active 190 DOM
17. 2026-02-16
    price $1,284,900 1133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1133 chars)

    BELMONTE QUICK DELIVERY - Premier Saratoga Springs Location! This stunning new-construction home offers an open, light-filled layout with two first-floor bedrooms and hardwood flooring throughout the main living areas, office, and second-floor hallway. The gourmet kitchen is designed to impress, featuring a custom island, ceiling-height cabinetry with crown molding, under-cabinet lighting, quartz countertops, a 48'' wood hood, ceramic tile backsplash, stainless-steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry. The great room showcases soaring vaulted ceilings and a cozy gas fireplace, while the luxurious primary suite includes cathedral ceilings and two custom walk-in closets. An ideal first-floor in-law suite sits conveniently beside a full bath. An open staircase leads to a spacious second-floor loft--perfect for additional living or work-from-home space. Step outside to enjoy the screened porch, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located within walking distance to downtown Saratoga, shopping, dining, and minutes from the Saratoga Race Course. Full construction is underway, with quick delivery expected July 2026!

18. 2026-01-15
    price $1,279,900 1133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1133 chars)

    BELMONTE QUICK DELIVERY - Premier Saratoga Springs Location! This stunning new-construction home offers an open, light-filled layout with two first-floor bedrooms and hardwood flooring throughout the main living areas, office, and second-floor hallway. The gourmet kitchen is designed to impress, featuring a custom island, ceiling-height cabinetry with crown molding, under-cabinet lighting, quartz countertops, a 48'' wood hood, ceramic tile backsplash, stainless-steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry. The great room showcases soaring vaulted ceilings and a cozy gas fireplace, while the luxurious primary suite includes cathedral ceilings and two custom walk-in closets. An ideal first-floor in-law suite sits conveniently beside a full bath. An open staircase leads to a spacious second-floor loft--perfect for additional living or work-from-home space. Step outside to enjoy the screened porch, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located within walking distance to downtown Saratoga, shopping, dining, and minutes from the Saratoga Race Course. Full construction is underway, with quick delivery expected July 2026!

19. 2025-12-17
    price $1,277,900 1133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1133 chars)

    BELMONTE QUICK DELIVERY - Premier Saratoga Springs Location! This stunning new-construction home offers an open, light-filled layout with two first-floor bedrooms and hardwood flooring throughout the main living areas, office, and second-floor hallway. The gourmet kitchen is designed to impress, featuring a custom island, ceiling-height cabinetry with crown molding, under-cabinet lighting, quartz countertops, a 48'' wood hood, ceramic tile backsplash, stainless-steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry. The great room showcases soaring vaulted ceilings and a cozy gas fireplace, while the luxurious primary suite includes cathedral ceilings and two custom walk-in closets. An ideal first-floor in-law suite sits conveniently beside a full bath. An open staircase leads to a spacious second-floor loft--perfect for additional living or work-from-home space. Step outside to enjoy the screened porch, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located within walking distance to downtown Saratoga, shopping, dining, and minutes from the Saratoga Race Course. Full construction is underway, with quick delivery expected July 2026!

20. 2025-11-21
    listed $1,270,900 Active 1133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1133 chars)

    BELMONTE QUICK DELIVERY - Premier Saratoga Springs Location! This stunning new-construction home offers an open, light-filled layout with two first-floor bedrooms and hardwood flooring throughout the main living areas, office, and second-floor hallway. The gourmet kitchen is designed to impress, featuring a custom island, ceiling-height cabinetry with crown molding, under-cabinet lighting, quartz countertops, a 48'' wood hood, ceramic tile backsplash, stainless-steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry. The great room showcases soaring vaulted ceilings and a cozy gas fireplace, while the luxurious primary suite includes cathedral ceilings and two custom walk-in closets. An ideal first-floor in-law suite sits conveniently beside a full bath. An open staircase leads to a spacious second-floor loft--perfect for additional living or work-from-home space. Step outside to enjoy the screened porch, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located within walking distance to downtown Saratoga, shopping, dining, and minutes from the Saratoga Race Course. Full construction is underway, with quick delivery expected July 2026!

21. 2021-12-01
    soldstatus $380,000
22. 2021-05-02
    historical
23. 2019-04-10
    status Active - Under Contract
24. 2019-03-28
    historical
25. 2018-06-13
    status Back On Market
26. 2018-03-27
    status Pend (Under Cntr)
27. 2018-03-20
    listed $400,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,535
• − Property taxes: −$19,424
• − Insurance: −$6,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,555
• − Management: −$3,555
• − Depreciation: −$37,670
• Taxable loss: −$98,774
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$23,706
• After-tax cash flow: $-48,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saratoga Springs City SD
• NCES district ID: 3625770
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,864
• Composite: 60.83/100
• National rank: #818
• State rank: #138 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saratoga Springs, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,057
• Household income: $101,901
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1424.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.78%
• Current HPI: 382.7429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+221.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $1,284,900 Global MLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $1,279,900 Global MLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $1,277,900 Global MLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $1,270,900 Global MLS
• 2021-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-02 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2019-04-10 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2019-03-28 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2018-06-13 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2018-03-27 Pending — Global MLS
• 2018-03-20 Listed $400,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,431 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.