210 Spring Ln

Peconic, NY 11958

$750,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $59,905/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax + insurance: −$1,028
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,580
• Net cashflow: $42,364/mo
• Annual: $508,365/yr
• Cap rate: 74.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 242.08%
• DSCR: 11.77
• 1% rule: 7.99%
• Cash to close: $210,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42k ($508k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($60k rent vs $750k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,144 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.