210 Spring Ln · Peconic, NY 11958

$750,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1976 0.57 ac lot Est $763k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This ranch home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, living room with a fireplace, open kitchen floor plan, rear deck, one car garage, and a dry full basement. The property is level and over 1/2 acre (100' X 248') There is water access at the end of Spring Lane and a big, beautiful beach at the end of Indian Neck Lane.

Key facts

• Dry full basement
• Rear deck
• Water access

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN FLOOR PLAN
• REAR DECK
• DRY FULL BASEMENT
• WATER ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42k ($508k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($60k rent vs $750k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,144 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $750,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 74.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 242.08%
• DSCR: 11.77
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $763,100
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Spring Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (0%)	0mo	$762,500	$587	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.01×
• Total profit: $2,731,339
• Equity at exit: $275,585

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 29.67×
• Total profit: $6,019,790
• Equity at exit: $381,849

Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11958

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $59,905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax from tax record: −$716 /mo · $8,587/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,580
• Net cashflow: $42,364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,280

Max offer price $750,000

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42,788	-5% $42,576	+0% $42,364	+5% $42,152	+10% $41,939
Rent	-10% $37,631	-5% $39,998	+0% $42,364	+5% $44,730	+10% $47,096
Rate	-1.0pp $42,741	-0.5pp $42,555	base $42,364	+0.5pp $42,169	+1.0pp $41,972

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,500
• Closing costs: $22,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3375 Indian Neck Ln Peconic, NY	4.0	4.5	1525	$80,000	$52.46	44d	1	0.37mi
1850 Sterling Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$3,800	$3.04	44d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-12
   listed $750,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,587 · $716/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,631 · $886/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,044/yr (+$170/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $718,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,012
• − Property taxes: −$8,587
• − Insurance: −$3,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$57,509
• − Management: −$57,509
• − Depreciation: −$21,818
• Taxable income: $527,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$126,642
• After-tax cash flow: $381,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Peconic

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1144
• US rank: #23856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peconic, NY
• City population: 864
• Population (ZIP): 864

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 28% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Current HPI: 219.0019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Listed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,587 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.