16320 E Skinner Dr

Rio Verde, AZ 85262

$749,000D-

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,616 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax + insurance: −$1,248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,327
• Net cashflow: $-185/mo
• Annual: $-2,224/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $209,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $749k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $722k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $632k (15.7% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($704k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $632k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#194 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Sun Academy (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #208 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 322 students, 14% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 598 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $81k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Rio Verde — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.