16320 E Skinner Dr · Rio Verde, AZ 85262

$749,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,616 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 2024 1.02 ac lot $286/sqft · at area comps Est $733k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for space, views, and that peaceful country feel--without giving up Scottsdale convenience? This is it! 1 Acre. No HOA. Mountain Views. Welcome to North Scottsdale Living--Elevated. Set on a full acre, this home offers the perfect blend of country-style peace and modern comfort, with a bright open layout, soaring ceilings, oversized doors, and natural light throughout. Each bedroom features its own private ensuite, creating space and privacy for everyone. Step outside to a newly finished turf backyard designed for low-maintenance living, plus covered front and back patios where you can take in stunning mountain views and Arizona sunsets. The oversized 3-car garage with dedicated workshop space gives you plenty of room for vehicles, storage, and all your gear. Located near Fountain Hills, Dynamite Blvd, and some of Scottsdale's best hiking and biking trailheads, this home delivers space, convenience, and a truly upgraded lifestyle.

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $749k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $722k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $632k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $632k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Rio Verde — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#194 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Sun Academy (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #208 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 322 students, 14% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 598 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($704k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $81k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $631,749 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $732,839
• List price: $749,000
• Delta: 2.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16348 E Skinner Dr	0.04mi	4/4.0	2,616 (0%)	15mo	$740,000	$283	85
29317 N 164th St	0.13mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,917 (+12%)	2mo	$851,000	$292	64
29015 N 168th St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,430 (-7%)	1mo	$760,000	$313	47
30218 N 162nd Way	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (-5%)	14mo	$750,000	$302	37
28327 N 164th St	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,311 (-12%)	17mo	$655,000	$283	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-133,080
• Equity at exit: $111,678

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-130,698
• Equity at exit: $64,760

Cash invested: $209,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$936 /mo · $11,235/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,327
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,552

Max offer price $722,179

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $73	+0% $-185	+5% $-444	+10% $-703
Rent	-10% $-684	-5% $-435	+0% $-185	+5% $64	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $5	base $-185	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-577

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,250
• Closing costs: $22,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27715 N 164th Pl Unit 1558634P Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.5	3498	$6,262	$1.79	0d	1	0.93mi
28301 N 154th St Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.5	2818	$4,500	$1.60	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $749,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $749,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $749,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $749,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $749,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $749,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $749,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $749,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $749,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $749,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $749,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $749,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $749,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $749,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $749,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $770,000 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Looking for space, views, and that peaceful country feel--without giving up Scottsdale convenience? This is it! 1 Acre. No HOA. Mountain Views. Welcome to North Scottsdale Living--Elevated. Set on a full acre, this home offers the perfect blend of country-style peace and modern comfort, with a bright open layout, soaring ceilings, oversized doors, and natural light throughout. Each bedroom features its own private ensuite, creating space and privacy for everyone. Step outside to a newly finished turf backyard designed for low-maintenance living, plus covered front and back patios where you can take in stunning mountain views and Arizona sunsets. The oversized 3-car garage with dedicated workshop space gives you plenty of room for vehicles, storage, and all your gear. Located near Fountain Hills, Dynamite Blvd, and some of Scottsdale's best hiking and biking trailheads, this home delivers space, convenience, and a truly upgraded lifestyle.

17. 2026-04-23
    price $775,000 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Looking for space, views, and that peaceful country feel--without giving up Scottsdale convenience? This is it! 1 Acre. No HOA. Mountain Views. Welcome to North Scottsdale Living--Elevated. Set on a full acre, this home offers the perfect blend of country-style peace and modern comfort, with a bright open layout, soaring ceilings, oversized doors, and natural light throughout. Each bedroom features its own private ensuite, creating space and privacy for everyone. Step outside to a newly finished turf backyard designed for low-maintenance living, plus covered front and back patios where you can take in stunning mountain views and Arizona sunsets. The oversized 3-car garage with dedicated workshop space gives you plenty of room for vehicles, storage, and all your gear. Located near Fountain Hills, Dynamite Blvd, and some of Scottsdale's best hiking and biking trailheads, this home delivers space, convenience, and a truly upgraded lifestyle.

18. 2026-04-11
    price $799,900 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Looking for space, views, and that peaceful country feel--without giving up Scottsdale convenience? This is it! 1 Acre. No HOA. Mountain Views. Welcome to North Scottsdale Living--Elevated. Set on a full acre, this home offers the perfect blend of country-style peace and modern comfort, with a bright open layout, soaring ceilings, oversized doors, and natural light throughout. Each bedroom features its own private ensuite, creating space and privacy for everyone. Step outside to a newly finished turf backyard designed for low-maintenance living, plus covered front and back patios where you can take in stunning mountain views and Arizona sunsets. The oversized 3-car garage with dedicated workshop space gives you plenty of room for vehicles, storage, and all your gear. Located near Fountain Hills, Dynamite Blvd, and some of Scottsdale's best hiking and biking trailheads, this home delivers space, convenience, and a truly upgraded lifestyle.

19. 2026-04-10
    price $825,000 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Looking for space, views, and that peaceful country feel--without giving up Scottsdale convenience? This is it! 1 Acre. No HOA. Mountain Views. Welcome to North Scottsdale Living--Elevated. Set on a full acre, this home offers the perfect blend of country-style peace and modern comfort, with a bright open layout, soaring ceilings, oversized doors, and natural light throughout. Each bedroom features its own private ensuite, creating space and privacy for everyone. Step outside to a newly finished turf backyard designed for low-maintenance living, plus covered front and back patios where you can take in stunning mountain views and Arizona sunsets. The oversized 3-car garage with dedicated workshop space gives you plenty of room for vehicles, storage, and all your gear. Located near Fountain Hills, Dynamite Blvd, and some of Scottsdale's best hiking and biking trailheads, this home delivers space, convenience, and a truly upgraded lifestyle.

20. 2026-03-16
    listed $830,000 Active 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Looking for space, views, and that peaceful country feel--without giving up Scottsdale convenience? This is it! 1 Acre. No HOA. Mountain Views. Welcome to North Scottsdale Living--Elevated. Set on a full acre, this home offers the perfect blend of country-style peace and modern comfort, with a bright open layout, soaring ceilings, oversized doors, and natural light throughout. Each bedroom features its own private ensuite, creating space and privacy for everyone. Step outside to a newly finished turf backyard designed for low-maintenance living, plus covered front and back patios where you can take in stunning mountain views and Arizona sunsets. The oversized 3-car garage with dedicated workshop space gives you plenty of room for vehicles, storage, and all your gear. Located near Fountain Hills, Dynamite Blvd, and some of Scottsdale's best hiking and biking trailheads, this home delivers space, convenience, and a truly upgraded lifestyle.

21. 2025-01-24
    soldstatus $725,000 Closed 1300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

    Unbelievable Opportunity in North Scottsdale - New Construction on 1 Acre with NO HOA! Ignore the days on market—these homes weren't completed yet, and now they're ready for you! This stunning new construction home offers a rare chance to live on a full acre in North Scottsdale for under $800K. With a highly desirable, light-filled open floor plan, this property is designed for both comfort and entertaining. Soaring 9' and 10' ceilings, 8' doors, and sleek Low-E windows create a bright, airy atmosphere, while each bedroom boasts its own private ensuite for ultimate privacy. You'll love relaxing on the expansive front and back covered patios, taking in the breathtaking mountain views. The oversized 3+ car garage is perfect for vehicles, toys, and includes a dedicated workshop space. And with its grandfathered EPCOR water service, you can enjoy peace of mind knowing there are no water concerns this benefit conveys with the new owner. Tucked away in a peaceful area, yet close enough to Dynamite Boulevard for easy access to shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, this home strikes the perfect balance of convenience and tranquility. At just $300 per square foot, this is an unbeatable value you won't find anywhere else in Scottsdale. Don't miss this incredible opportunity!

22. 2024-12-30
    status Pending 1300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

    Unbelievable Opportunity in North Scottsdale - New Construction on 1 Acre with NO HOA! Ignore the days on market—these homes weren't completed yet, and now they're ready for you! This stunning new construction home offers a rare chance to live on a full acre in North Scottsdale for under $800K. With a highly desirable, light-filled open floor plan, this property is designed for both comfort and entertaining. Soaring 9' and 10' ceilings, 8' doors, and sleek Low-E windows create a bright, airy atmosphere, while each bedroom boasts its own private ensuite for ultimate privacy. You'll love relaxing on the expansive front and back covered patios, taking in the breathtaking mountain views. The oversized 3+ car garage is perfect for vehicles, toys, and includes a dedicated workshop space. And with its grandfathered EPCOR water service, you can enjoy peace of mind knowing there are no water concerns this benefit conveys with the new owner. Tucked away in a peaceful area, yet close enough to Dynamite Boulevard for easy access to shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, this home strikes the perfect balance of convenience and tranquility. At just $300 per square foot, this is an unbeatable value you won't find anywhere else in Scottsdale. Don't miss this incredible opportunity!

23. 2024-12-20
    price $725,000 1300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

    Unbelievable Opportunity in North Scottsdale - New Construction on 1 Acre with NO HOA! Ignore the days on market—these homes weren't completed yet, and now they're ready for you! This stunning new construction home offers a rare chance to live on a full acre in North Scottsdale for under $800K. With a highly desirable, light-filled open floor plan, this property is designed for both comfort and entertaining. Soaring 9' and 10' ceilings, 8' doors, and sleek Low-E windows create a bright, airy atmosphere, while each bedroom boasts its own private ensuite for ultimate privacy. You'll love relaxing on the expansive front and back covered patios, taking in the breathtaking mountain views. The oversized 3+ car garage is perfect for vehicles, toys, and includes a dedicated workshop space. And with its grandfathered EPCOR water service, you can enjoy peace of mind knowing there are no water concerns this benefit conveys with the new owner. Tucked away in a peaceful area, yet close enough to Dynamite Boulevard for easy access to shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, this home strikes the perfect balance of convenience and tranquility. At just $300 per square foot, this is an unbeatable value you won't find anywhere else in Scottsdale. Don't miss this incredible opportunity!

24. 2024-12-05
    listed $750,000 Active 1300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

    Unbelievable Opportunity in North Scottsdale - New Construction on 1 Acre with NO HOA! Ignore the days on market—these homes weren't completed yet, and now they're ready for you! This stunning new construction home offers a rare chance to live on a full acre in North Scottsdale for under $800K. With a highly desirable, light-filled open floor plan, this property is designed for both comfort and entertaining. Soaring 9' and 10' ceilings, 8' doors, and sleek Low-E windows create a bright, airy atmosphere, while each bedroom boasts its own private ensuite for ultimate privacy. You'll love relaxing on the expansive front and back covered patios, taking in the breathtaking mountain views. The oversized 3+ car garage is perfect for vehicles, toys, and includes a dedicated workshop space. And with its grandfathered EPCOR water service, you can enjoy peace of mind knowing there are no water concerns this benefit conveys with the new owner. Tucked away in a peaceful area, yet close enough to Dynamite Boulevard for easy access to shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, this home strikes the perfect balance of convenience and tranquility. At just $300 per square foot, this is an unbeatable value you won't find anywhere else in Scottsdale. Don't miss this incredible opportunity!

25. 2024-11-26
    historical
26. 2024-10-04
    price $749,900
27. 2024-09-05
    price $769,900
28. 2024-05-23
    listed $789,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,956
• − Property taxes: −$11,235
• − Insurance: −$3,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,065
• − Management: −$6,065
• − Depreciation: −$21,789
• Taxable loss: −$15,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,611
• After-tax cash flow: $1,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Verde

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #19880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $770,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $775,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $799,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $825,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $830,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Sold (MLS) $725,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $725,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $750,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $749,900 ARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $769,900 ARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listed $789,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $246 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.