2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,210 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 73 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,053/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$205
Tax + insurance
−$61
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$221
Net cashflow
$567/mo
Annual
$6,802/yr
Cap rate
23.73%
Cash-on-cash
62.28%
DSCR
3.77
1% rule
2.70%
Cash to close
$10,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#459 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4JABB55VF5N15T
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29