2850 Gulf OF Mexico Dr #5

Longboat Key, FL 34228

$348,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 657 sqft · Built 1967 · Condo · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,598/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax + insurance: −$955
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $-437/mo
• Annual: $-5,249/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $97,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $348k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-437 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (22.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $348k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southside Elementary School (math 79% / reading 81%, grade A+, #110 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 687 students, 26% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 545 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.