2850 Gulf OF Mexico Dr #5 · Longboat Key, FL 34228

$348,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 657 sqft · Condo public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1967 $530/sqft · 40% below area Est $579k · 40% under $500/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable condo is Close enough to hear the crashing waves of the Gulf of Mexico! Located in the dog friendly complex of Neptune on Longboat Key - One bedroom, one bathroom condo in an OLD FLORIDA STYLE COMPLEX across the street is the Public BEACH ACCESS that leads to a very secluded spot to soak in the aqua blue water! Located on the rarely available desirable ground floor with the best floor plan in the complex! Neutral tile throughout. Some owners have made the Walk-in closet in the Master bedroom into a 2nd bedroom because of how spacious it is. Sliding glass doors from the living room & bedroom lead to the large tiled screened lanai. Open wood deck overlooks the tropically landscaped grounds. Separate laundry facility on site. Publix grocery & shopping only blocks away. Flexible rental policy and pets allowed make this boutique complex the answer to your snow filled life as the rent can offset the expenses! One of the lowest monthly fees on the entire island of Longboat key!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Public beach access
• Tile flooring

Tags

• PUBLIC BEACH ACCESS
• GROUND-FLOOR UNIT
• INCOME-GENERATING PROPERTY
• BRIGHT OPEN LIVING SPACE
• TILE FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From St. Armands Circle head north on Gulf of Mexico Dr (SR 789) approximately 7 miles; property is on the right just past the Publix Shopping Center and the Longboat Key Library; Living area reported as 657 sq ft (public records); building area reported as 700 sq ft; Living area source: public records
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as $500; total annual fees listed as $6,000; Lease restrictions apply; Furnished: Turnkey
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee $500 (quarterly term: $1,500); Association covers common area taxes, electricity, escrow reserves, insurance, structure and grounds maintenance, general maintenance, management, pest control, trash, and water; Association contact: Rachael Brown; Community features: street lights; no community amenities listed; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Part-time management

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Completed condition; One level; 2 total stories in building; East-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Built-up roof; Slab foundation; Building name: NEPTUNE ON LONGBOAT KEY; Built/recorded building area about 700 sq ft
• Exterior features: Porch; Screened porch; Other exterior features; Near golf course; Near marina; Near public transit; City limits; In county; Flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Freezer; Ice maker; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crown molding; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Insulated windows; Shutters; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric water heater; Laundry inside; Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-437 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (22.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $348k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southside Elementary School (math 79% / reading 81%, grade A+, #110 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 687 students, 26% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 545 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,722 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $578,595
• List price: $348,000
• Delta: -39.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-25,371
• Equity at exit: $113,898

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $4,175
• Equity at exit: $147,638

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34228

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 545
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,598 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,601/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $-437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,152

Max offer price $270,722

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-339	+0% $-437	+5% $-536	+10% $-634
Rent	-10% $-722	-5% $-580	+0% $-437	+5% $-295	+10% $-153
Rate	-1.0pp $-262	-0.5pp $-349	base $-437	+0.5pp $-528	+1.0pp $-619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $500 · $6,000/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $348,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $348,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $348,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $348,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $348,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $348,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $348,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $348,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $348,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $348,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $348,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $348,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $348,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $348,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,000 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $368,500 Active 1044-char remark
19. 2026-02-02
    historical
20. 2025-09-04
    price $398,000
21. 2025-08-15
    price $414,000
22. 2025-07-31
    listed $424,000 Active
23. 2018-06-14
    soldstatus $240,000
24. 2018-06-08
    soldstatus $240,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    This adorable condo is Close enough to hear the crashing waves of the Gulf of Mexico! Located in the dog friendly complex of Neptune on Longboat Key - One bedroom, one bathroom condo in an OLD FLORIDA STYLE COMPLEX across the street is the Public BEACH ACCESS that leads to a very secluded spot to soak in the aqua blue water! Located on the rarely available desirable ground floor with the best floor plan in the complex! Neutral tile throughout. Some owners have made the Walk-in closet in the Master bedroom into a 2nd bedroom because of how spacious it is. Sliding glass doors from the living room & bedroom lead to the large tiled screened lanai. Open wood deck overlooks the tropically landscaped grounds. Separate laundry facility on site. Publix grocery & shopping only blocks away. Flexible rental policy and pets allowed make this boutique complex the answer to your snow filled life as the rent can offset the expenses! One of the lowest monthly fees on the entire island of Longboat key!

25. 2018-04-28
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    This adorable condo is Close enough to hear the crashing waves of the Gulf of Mexico! Located in the dog friendly complex of Neptune on Longboat Key - One bedroom, one bathroom condo in an OLD FLORIDA STYLE COMPLEX across the street is the Public BEACH ACCESS that leads to a very secluded spot to soak in the aqua blue water! Located on the rarely available desirable ground floor with the best floor plan in the complex! Neutral tile throughout. Some owners have made the Walk-in closet in the Master bedroom into a 2nd bedroom because of how spacious it is. Sliding glass doors from the living room & bedroom lead to the large tiled screened lanai. Open wood deck overlooks the tropically landscaped grounds. Separate laundry facility on site. Publix grocery & shopping only blocks away. Flexible rental policy and pets allowed make this boutique complex the answer to your snow filled life as the rent can offset the expenses! One of the lowest monthly fees on the entire island of Longboat key!

26. 2018-03-08
    price $250,000

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    This adorable condo is Close enough to hear the crashing waves of the Gulf of Mexico! Located in the dog friendly complex of Neptune on Longboat Key - One bedroom, one bathroom condo in an OLD FLORIDA STYLE COMPLEX across the street is the Public BEACH ACCESS that leads to a very secluded spot to soak in the aqua blue water! Located on the rarely available desirable ground floor with the best floor plan in the complex! Neutral tile throughout. Some owners have made the Walk-in closet in the Master bedroom into a 2nd bedroom because of how spacious it is. Sliding glass doors from the living room & bedroom lead to the large tiled screened lanai. Open wood deck overlooks the tropically landscaped grounds. Separate laundry facility on site. Publix grocery & shopping only blocks away. Flexible rental policy and pets allowed make this boutique complex the answer to your snow filled life as the rent can offset the expenses! One of the lowest monthly fees on the entire island of Longboat key!

27. 2018-01-25
    price $265,000

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    This adorable condo is Close enough to hear the crashing waves of the Gulf of Mexico! Located in the dog friendly complex of Neptune on Longboat Key - One bedroom, one bathroom condo in an OLD FLORIDA STYLE COMPLEX across the street is the Public BEACH ACCESS that leads to a very secluded spot to soak in the aqua blue water! Located on the rarely available desirable ground floor with the best floor plan in the complex! Neutral tile throughout. Some owners have made the Walk-in closet in the Master bedroom into a 2nd bedroom because of how spacious it is. Sliding glass doors from the living room & bedroom lead to the large tiled screened lanai. Open wood deck overlooks the tropically landscaped grounds. Separate laundry facility on site. Publix grocery & shopping only blocks away. Flexible rental policy and pets allowed make this boutique complex the answer to your snow filled life as the rent can offset the expenses! One of the lowest monthly fees on the entire island of Longboat key!

28. 2018-01-19
    listed $275,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    This adorable condo is Close enough to hear the crashing waves of the Gulf of Mexico! Located in the dog friendly complex of Neptune on Longboat Key - One bedroom, one bathroom condo in an OLD FLORIDA STYLE COMPLEX across the street is the Public BEACH ACCESS that leads to a very secluded spot to soak in the aqua blue water! Located on the rarely available desirable ground floor with the best floor plan in the complex! Neutral tile throughout. Some owners have made the Walk-in closet in the Master bedroom into a 2nd bedroom because of how spacious it is. Sliding glass doors from the living room & bedroom lead to the large tiled screened lanai. Open wood deck overlooks the tropically landscaped grounds. Separate laundry facility on site. Publix grocery & shopping only blocks away. Flexible rental policy and pets allowed make this boutique complex the answer to your snow filled life as the rent can offset the expenses! One of the lowest monthly fees on the entire island of Longboat key!

29. 2009-12-01
    soldstatus $125,000
30. 2008-07-29
    listed $139,000
31. 2005-05-25
    soldstatus $277,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,601 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,601 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$4,601
• − Insurance: −$6,859
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,454
• − Management: −$3,454
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable loss: −$10,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,594
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Longboat Key

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #693
• US rank: #14452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longboat Key, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 7,539
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,539
• Household income: $158,030
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 234.5017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+25.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $348,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $368,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $398,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $414,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listed $424,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-08 Sold (MLS) $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-08 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-25 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-19 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-01 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-29 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $277,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,601 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.