210 Lazy Willow Dr

Four Corners, FL 33897

$400,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,945 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 321 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,139/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$487
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-185/mo
• Annual: $-2,221/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $314k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $330 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Ridge A Civics Academy (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,457 students, 48% FRL); Lake Alfred Polytech Academy (math 41% / reading 43%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 645 students, 59% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,139/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 926% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.