8026 Rose St

Victoria, MN 55386

$375,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$359
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,574/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (25.9% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $278k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#529 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Eastern Carver County Public School (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in MN (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Elementary (math 68% / reading 65%, grade B+, #113 of 857 statewide, top 14%, 652 students, 6% FRL); Chaska Middle School East (math 52% / reading 61%, grade B, #38 of 258 statewide, top 15%, 519 students, 14% FRL); Chanhassen High School (math 52% / reading 68%, grade C+, #44 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 1,370 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 682 units permitted in Carver County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carver County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $375k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($192k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.