8026 Rose St · Victoria, MN 55386

$375,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1930 8,319 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 1 1/2 story on end of dead end street. Updated kitchen, recently refinished hardwood floors, newer additon with new bath & bedroom, new 24 x 24 garage, new central air, lots of room for the money.

Key facts

• 8,319 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; Insulated 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half stories; Irregular lot dimensions
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation; Roof age 8 years or less; Basement: block crawl space, unfinished
• Exterior features: Storage shed; Privacy fencing; Light tree coverage; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Wall oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (main and upper levels; main floor primary and additional main-level bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bath (1 full bath)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Main floor primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom; Main floor laundry; Breakfast bar and breakfast area; Living/dining room; Natural woodwork; Kitchen window; Humidifier; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#529 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Eastern Carver County Public School (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in MN (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Elementary (math 68% / reading 65%, grade B+, #113 of 857 statewide, top 14%, 652 students, 6% FRL); Chaska Middle School East (math 52% / reading 61%, grade B, #38 of 258 statewide, top 15%, 519 students, 14% FRL); Chanhassen High School (math 52% / reading 68%, grade C+, #44 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 1,370 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 682 units permitted in Carver County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($192k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carver County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $375k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $277,777 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-69,243
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-71,548
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55386

• Home prices YoY: -20.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,434/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,944

Max offer price $351,825

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $-25	+0% $-131	+5% $-237	+10% $-343
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-241	+0% $-131	+5% $-21	+10% $88
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-36	base $-131	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7980 Rose St Victoria, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1071	$3,470	$3.24	0d	25	0.03mi
1699 Stieger Lake Ln Victoria, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,695	$2.99	0d	4	0.21mi
1942 Stieger Lake Ln Victoria, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,725	$3.18	0d	103	0.24mi
8327 Victoria Dr Unit TH Victoria, MN	2.0	1.0	1035	$2,095	$2.02	6d	1	0.40mi
7807 Madelyn Creek Dr Victoria, MN	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,625	$1.61	0d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-23
   historical Contingent - Inspection
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $375,000 Active
3. 2026-05-18
   historical $375,000
4. 2011-09-06
   soldstatus $142,000
5. 2011-09-06
   soldstatus $142,000
6. 2011-08-31
   soldstatus $142,000 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Cute 1 1/2 story on end of dead end street. Updated kitchen, recently refinished hardwood floors, newer additon with new bath & bedroom, new 24 x 24 garage, new central air, lots of room for the money.

7. 2011-08-09
   historical
8. 2011-07-25
   historical 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Cute 1 1/2 story on end of dead end street. Updated kitchen, recently refinished hardwood floors, newer additon with new bath & bedroom, new 24 x 24 garage, new central air, lots of room for the money.

9. 2011-07-11
   listed $159,900 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Cute 1 1/2 story on end of dead end street. Updated kitchen, recently refinished hardwood floors, newer additon with new bath & bedroom, new 24 x 24 garage, new central air, lots of room for the money.

10. 2011-06-29
    listed $1,195
11. 2009-09-03
    soldstatus $159,000
12. 2009-08-29
    historical
13. 2009-07-07
    listed $159,900
14. 2008-09-15
    soldstatus $91,600
15. 2008-08-15
    historical
16. 2008-07-17
    listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,434 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,317 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$883/yr (+$74/mo · 36.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$2,434
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$8,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,974
• After-tax cash flow: $400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern Carver County Public School
• NCES district ID: 2708190
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $87,010
• Composite: 51.68/100
• National rank: #1694
• State rank: #41 of 301 in MN

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #12700

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, MN
• County: Carver County · 77,775 people
• City population: 10,077
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,077
• Household income: $192,458
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 13.0

Population outlook (Carver County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,077 people
• By 2030: 122,880 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 137,210 · +19.2%
• By 2050: 148,524 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 174,624 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 185,806 · +61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scottish 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carver

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.4) · D 46.3% · R 51.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.7pp toward D · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.4 2020: R+4.9 2016: R+13.7 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.28%
• Current HPI: 195.3792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+278.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Listed $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Coming Soon $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-31 Sold (MLS) $142,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-11 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-29 Listed $1,195 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-03 Sold (MLS) $159,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-07 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-15 Sold (MLS) $91,600 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-17 Listed $99,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,434 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.