9278 N Highway 101 #33

Los Alamos, CA 93440

$339,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,361/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax + insurance: −$566
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $306/mo
• Annual: $3,675/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $95,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (1.1% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $336k (1.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,007 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Orcutt Union Elementary (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #414 of 1,400 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.5% in Los Alamos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.