9278 N Highway 101 #33 · Los Alamos, CA 93440

$339,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $285k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Rancho Los Alamos, An All-Age community in Los Alamos. Not very often does a Brand-New Manufactured Home become available for sale in this cute community. This is a Beautiful 3 bedroom and 2 bathroom home with entrance from a front porch. As you walk through the front door, you are greeted with a nice size living room that opens to the kitchen and dining area. The kitchen comes fully equipped with a dishwasher, refrigerator, built-in microwave oven and oven/range all in stainless steel. As you make your way through the home is where the bedrooms are located; the two guest bedrooms are nicely sized and share a bathroom and the primary bedroom has an en-suite bathroom. This is a gr

Key facts

• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 101130021; Directions: 101 to Los Alamos to Price Canyon
• HOA & community: Park land lease of $1,000 monthly (park-managed); Community is rural; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Rancho Los Alamos park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Front entry
• Construction: Mobile home (27 ft by 56 ft); Year built per builder
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Front entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (1.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.5% in Los Alamos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,007 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Orcutt Union Elementary (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #414 of 1,400 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $336,100 (1.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9278 Hwy 101 #23	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	14mo	$300,000	$198	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $16,692
• Equity at exit: $106,230

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $92,600
• Equity at exit: $133,872

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93440

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,098/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,973

Max offer price $339,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on marketlisting id $339,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-04-18
   status Active
3. 2026-02-28
   listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$5,098
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,227
• − Management: −$3,227
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$1,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$443
• After-tax cash flow: $4,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orcutt Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628710
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 45.96/100
• National rank: #5530
• State rank: #414 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Los Alamos

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #24871

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Alamos, CA
• Population (ZIP): 896

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 13% Serbian 7% German 5%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Current HPI: 320.7938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $339,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $384 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.