1864 Green Dragon Dr

St. Cloud, FL 34771

$300,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,628/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-323/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-323/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (12.4% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Narcoossee Elementary School (math 55% / reading 65%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 1,467 students, 38% FRL); Narcoossee Middle School (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #175 of 571 statewide, top 31%, 1,371 students, 46% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1396 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.