1864 Green Dragon Dr · St. Cloud, FL 34771

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2018 6,098 sqft lot Est $388k · 23% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Short Sale opportunity in St. Cloud! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is located at 1864 Green Dragon Dr, St. Cloud, FL and offers a functional layout with a kitchen, spacious living room, and a backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. The split bedroom floor plan provides flexibility for family living, guests, or a home office. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. A great opportunity for buyers looking to add value. Short sale subject to lender approval.

Key facts

• Backyard
• Conveniently located
• Spacious living room

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• BACKYARD
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-323/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Narcoossee Elementary School (math 55% / reading 65%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 1,467 students, 38% FRL); Narcoossee Middle School (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #175 of 571 statewide, top 31%, 1,371 students, 46% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1396 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,841 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5105 Foxtail Fern Way	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,846 (0%)	2mo	$360,000	$195	96
1638 Chatsworth Cir	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+1%)	2mo	$359,999	$194	66
1725 Reflection Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-0%)	1mo	$374,000	$203	61
1647 Cane Bamboo St	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,903 (+3%)	4mo	$399,990	$210	59
5036 Holm Oak Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,913 (+4%)	2mo	$392,390	$205	59
5231 Painted Bamboo St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,982 (+7%)	1mo	$399,990	$202	58
1653 Cane Bamboo Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,981 (+7%)	2mo	$476,000	$240	58
5249 Painted Bamboo St	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,982 (+7%)	2mo	$492,879	$249	56
4813 Jeanette Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,654 (-10%)	1mo	$375,000	$227	55
5244 Painted Bamboo St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,982 (+7%)	3mo	$480,000	$242	55
1902 Ashley Oaks Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,704 (-8%)	2mo	$345,000	$202	48
2317 Tay Wes Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-13%)	2mo	$360,000	$224	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,217
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,484
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34771

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1396
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,628 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,902/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,663

Max offer price $295,242

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $58	+0% $-27	+5% $-112	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-131	+0% $-27	+5% $77	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $49	base $-27	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1883 Green Dragon Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,495	$1.41	0d	1	0.08mi
5120 Star Ruby Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,110	$1.26	9d	1	0.10mi
1842 Castleton Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,419	$1.30	5d	1	0.59mi
1859 Castleton Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	2064	$2,490	$1.21	6d	1	0.63mi
2071 Tay Wes Dr Saint Cloud, FL	5.0	3.0	2460	$2,700	$1.10	25d	1	0.63mi
2294 Tay Wes Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$2,350	$1.40	22d	1	0.67mi
2099 Tay Wes Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,600	$1.18	0d	1	0.68mi
5301 Amersham Ln Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	2434	$3,000	$1.23	25d	1	0.68mi
5314 Amersham Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2110	$650	$0.31	4d	1	0.75mi
2255 Tay Wes Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,500	$1.67	25d	1	0.76mi
2128 Live Oak Lake Rd Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	2146	$2,200	$1.03	0d	1	0.78mi
2238 Tay Wes Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$2,100	$1.25	6d	1	0.80mi
1623 Reflection Cv Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1695	$2,000	$1.18	25d	1	0.81mi
2239 Tay Wes Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,295	$1.52	9d	1	0.82mi
4813 Apple Blossom Ln Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1695	$2,100	$1.24	25d	1	0.85mi
5203 Northern Flicker Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,000	$1.57	25d	1	0.85mi
2173 Tay Wes Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,300	$1.53	19d	1	0.87mi
5476 Angel Way Saint Cloud, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$2,136	$2.17	0d	34	0.89mi
5182 Flycatcher Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2306	$2,700	$1.17	25d	1	0.97mi
5192 Chickadee St Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2204	$2,490	$1.13	25d	1	0.98mi
2274 Nuthatch St Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,650	$1.70	25d	1	1.02mi
2286 Nuthatch St Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2204	$2,490	$1.13	22d	1	1.04mi
1863 Shumard Ave Unit 1863 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,100	$1.43	5d	1	1.06mi
1884 Overcup Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,100	$1.23	19d	1	1.14mi
5574 Bakewell Pl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1957	$2,350	$1.20	23d	1	1.21mi
5642 Western Sun Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,995	$1.19	4d	1	1.46mi
5684 Western Sun Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,500	$1.49	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-22
   listed $300,000 Active
3. 2025-10-21
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-21
   historical
5. 2025-10-19
   price $310,000
6. 2025-10-06
   status Active
7. 2025-09-12
   status Pending
8. 2025-08-07
   price $350,000
9. 2025-08-04
   price $360,000
10. 2025-07-21
    price $375,000
11. 2025-06-25
    listed $399,964 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,902 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,902 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,902
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,523
• − Management: −$2,523
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,399
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,296
• After-tax cash flow: $973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Cloud, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,257
• Household income: $97,415
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 26% Cuban 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.44%
• Current HPI: 290.3095
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $360,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Listed $399,964 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+49.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,902 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.