51948 River Rd

Rock Creek, MN 55069

$235,900D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · Built 1918 · SingleFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,237
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $227/mo
• Annual: $2,721/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $66,052

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (7.8% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#721 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rush City Public School District (rural): math 37% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #195 of 301 in MN (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $236k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.