51948 River Rd · Rock Creek, MN 55069

$235,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1918 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy 1 1/2 story, well maintained w/many updates! Many outbuildings, heated pole bldg & guest cottage! All on 10 wooded acres. 1 mi from St Croix River & Management area w/hiking trails!

Key facts

• Flowing stream
• Guest cottage
• 72x30 pole building

Tags

• 10 ACRES OF LAND
• FLOWING STREAM
• 72X30 POLE BUILDING
• CHICKEN COOP
• GUEST COTTAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 10 acres (330 x 1320) with county road frontage on a public maintained road; Directions: I-35 to Rush City exit, east to 517th Street, right to property on the left
• HOA & community: No association fees (N/A)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 car capacity (garage approx. 20.5 x 12.5)
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer with tank and drain field; Propane and wood fuel options
• Home design: Residential property; One and one half levels; On waterfront (creek/stream)
• Construction: Built on block and stone foundation; Asphalt roof; Basement present (partial, block, crawl space) with sump pump
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Deck; Pole building on the property; Wire fencing; Located on a creek/stream waterfront; Heavy tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one on the main level, one on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: One 3/4 bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Main floor 3/4 bathroom; Main floor laundry; Dishwasher; Dryer; Exhaust fan; Range; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#721 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rush City Public School District (rural): math 37% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #195 of 301 in MN (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $236k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $217,550 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,835
• Equity at exit: $35,173

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,370
• Equity at exit: $20,396

Cash invested: $66,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55069

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,237
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,878/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,888

Max offer price $235,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,975
• Closing costs: $7,077
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Active
2. 2026-04-23
   historical Contingent - Other
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $235,900 Active
4. 2002-10-25
   soldstatus $140,200 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Cozy 1 1/2 story, well maintained w/many updates! Many outbuildings, heated pole bldg & guest cottage! All on 10 wooded acres. 1 mi from St Croix River & Management area w/hiking trails!

5. 2002-10-25
   soldstatus $144,200

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Cozy 1 1/2 story, well maintained w/many updates! Many outbuildings, heated pole bldg & guest cottage! All on 10 wooded acres. 1 mi from St Croix River & Management area w/hiking trails!

6. 2002-09-19
   historical 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Cozy 1 1/2 story, well maintained w/many updates! Many outbuildings, heated pole bldg & guest cottage! All on 10 wooded acres. 1 mi from St Croix River & Management area w/hiking trails!

7. 2002-09-15
   listed $139,900 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Cozy 1 1/2 story, well maintained w/many updates! Many outbuildings, heated pole bldg & guest cottage! All on 10 wooded acres. 1 mi from St Croix River & Management area w/hiking trails!

8. 1998-05-21
   soldstatus $89,900
9. 1998-05-15
   soldstatus $89,900
10. 1992-05-05
    soldstatus $55,000
11. 1988-04-20
    soldstatus $89,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,878 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,260 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$382/yr (+$32/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,214
• − Property taxes: −$1,878
• − Insurance: −$1,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$6,863
• Taxable loss: −$1,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$289
• After-tax cash flow: $3,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rush City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2732550
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $60,045
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4499
• State rank: #195 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rock Creek

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #721
• US rank: #17423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,936

Population outlook (Chisago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,187 people
• By 2030: 55,036 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 53,293 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 49,157 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 38,399 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 24,646 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chisago

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.2 2016: R+30.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 428.9296
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+163.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $235,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $144,200 Public Records
• 2002-10-25 Sold (MLS) $140,200 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-15 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 1998-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 1992-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1988-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $89,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,878 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.