69 View Dr

Pleasant Valley, NY 12569

$189,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$591
• Tax + insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$840
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $635/mo
• Annual: $7,625/yr
• Cap rate: 13.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.18%
• DSCR: 2.08
• 1% rule: 2.53%
• Cash to close: $31,539

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $779 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,059 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Traver Road Primary School (327 students, 26% FRL); Lagrange Middle School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 865 students, 38% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.0% in Pleasant Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.