69 View Dr · Pleasant Valley, NY 12569

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $840/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new manufactured home in desirable Hickory Hills Estates! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence blends modern contemporary style with everyday functionality—perfectly situated in a fantastic commuter-friendly location. With nearly 1,000 sq ft of bright and airy living space, this home is designed for comfort, convenience, and style. Wide-open floor plan that effortlessly connects the spacious living room, dining area, and large kitchen—ideal for entertaining or simply enjoying a cozy night in. Kitchen features beautiful shaker-style cabinets, oversized stainless steel farm sink, and sleek appliances. High ceilings and recessed lighting throughout the home enhance its

Key facts

• Private side deck
• Wide-open floor plan
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• HICKORY HILLS ESTATES
• COMMUTER-FRIENDLY LOCATION
• WIDE-OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETS
• MEDIA UPGRADE OPTIONS
• PRIVATE SIDE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Hickory Hill Estates association; Association fee $840 monthly; Association fee covers common area maintenance, sewer, trash, water, and other services

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Propane; Shared sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); To be built
• Construction: Single wide manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Slab foundation; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One-level home (single story) — includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Ductwork cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside; Washer/dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $189,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $112,640.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.0% in Pleasant Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,059 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Traver Road Primary School (327 students, 26% FRL); Lagrange Middle School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 865 students, 38% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $779 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.18%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,640
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Elm Ln	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (-11%)	3mo	$100,000	$128	69
15 Walnut Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,000 (+14%)	9mo	$145,000	$145	63
30 Elm Ln	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+11%)	10mo	$45,000	$46	59
55 Water Loop	0.10mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,000 (+14%)	17mo	$81,000	$81	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $22,775
• Equity at exit: $16,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $74,214
• Equity at exit: $9,739

Cash invested: $31,539 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12569

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$591
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$141 /mo · $1,690/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$840
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,049

Max offer price $112,640

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,160
• Closing costs: $3,379
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10100 Brookside Rd Pleasant Valley, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1428	$3,250	$2.28	13d	1	0.32mi
5 Village PARK Pleasant Valley, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1200	$2,679	$2.23	13d	1	0.87mi
1 Maggiacomo Ln Apt 4 Pleasant Valley, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	43d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $840 · $10,080/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $189,900 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 687-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $189,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,310
• − Property taxes: −$1,690
• − Insurance: −$563
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,739
• − Management: −$2,739
• − HOA: −$10,080
• − Depreciation: −$3,277
• Taxable income: $6,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,641
• After-tax cash flow: $5,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new manufactured home in Hickory Hills Estates is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value increases through minor exterior and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add a small outdoor lighting system — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor lighting system — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pleasant Valley

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1059
• US rank: #21157

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,766

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.72%
• Current HPI: 240.7838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $189,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid