403 Main St

Ellisville, MS 39437

$132,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $785/mo
• Annual: $9,417/yr
• Cap rate: 13.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.48%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $36,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $132k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $785 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#123 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.