403 Main St · Ellisville, MS 39437

$132,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1900 22 ac lot $95/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely renovated t3 bedroom 2 bath house!!! Fenced in yard, storage shed, firepit, room for a garden, and lots of room for Entertaining Guest. Master suite has a huge walk-in-closet with bathroom!

Key facts

• Master suite
• Firepit
• Room for a garden

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• FIREPIT
• ROOM FOR A GARDEN
• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN-CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $785 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#123 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,040 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.48%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,786
• List price: $132,000
• Delta: 52.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 South Deason St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-11%)	22mo	$39,500	$32	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $28,550
• Equity at exit: $19,682

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $89,049
• Equity at exit: $11,413

Cash invested: $36,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39437

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $576/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $132,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,000
• Closing costs: $3,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 Highway 11 N Ellisville, MS	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $132,000 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Completely renovated t3 bedroom 2 bath house!!! Fenced in yard, storage shed, firepit, room for a garden, and lots of room for Entertaining Guest. Master suite has a huge walk-in-closet with bathroom!

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $142,000 Active 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Completely renovated t3 bedroom 2 bath house!!! Fenced in yard, storage shed, firepit, room for a garden, and lots of room for Entertaining Guest. Master suite has a huge walk-in-closet with bathroom!

3. 2025-07-28
   price $169,999
4. 2025-06-25
   price $171,900
5. 2025-04-25
   price $174,900
6. 2025-03-25
   listed $179,999 Active
7. 2023-12-20
   soldstatus Closed
8. 2023-11-28
   soldstatus Closed
9. 2023-10-23
   status Pending
10. 2023-10-23
    status Pending
11. 2023-10-19
    status Active
12. 2023-10-19
    status Active
13. 2023-10-03
    status Pending
14. 2023-09-28
    status Pending
15. 2023-09-18
    price $169,900
16. 2023-09-18
    price $169,900
17. 2023-08-21
    listed $179,900 Active
18. 2023-08-10
    listed $179,900 Active
19. 2022-08-30
    soldstatus
20. 2022-08-10
    listed $55,000
21. 2017-04-21
    listed $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,043 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 80.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,394
• − Property taxes: −$576
• − Insurance: −$660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$3,840
• Taxable income: $7,690
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,845
• After-tax cash flow: $7,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,051
• Composite: 33.24/100
• National rank: #5520
• State rank: #40 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ellisville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #13645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellisville, MS
• City population: 12,287
• Population (ZIP): 12,287

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,800 people
• By 2030: 68,773 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 68,087 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 66,241 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 58,600 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 45,744 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 26.2% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+42.2 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.84%
• Current HPI: 142.2369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+91.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $132,000 LBOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $142,000 LBOR
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $169,999 HAAR
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $171,900 HAAR
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $174,900 HAAR
• 2025-03-25 Listed $179,999 HAAR
• 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2023-11-28 Sold (MLS) — LBOR
• 2023-10-23 Pending — HAAR
• 2023-10-23 Pending — LBOR
• 2023-10-19 Relisted — HAAR
• 2023-10-19 Relisted — LBOR
• 2023-10-03 Pending — HAAR
• 2023-09-28 Pending — LBOR
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $169,900 LBOR
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $169,900 HAAR
• 2023-08-21 Listed $179,900 HAAR
• 2023-08-10 Listed $179,900 LBOR
• 2022-08-30 Sold (MLS) — LBOR
• 2022-08-10 Listed $55,000 LBOR
• 2017-04-21 Listed $69,000 HAAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $576 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.