185 Hidden Loop

Arley, AL 35503

$399,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,272/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $618/mo
• Annual: $7,414/yr
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.64%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $375k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#187 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Curry Elementary School (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 547 students, 64% FRL); Curry Middle School (math 10% / reading 46%, grade F, #141 of 257 statewide, top 55%, 359 students, 68% FRL); Curry High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #195 of 305 statewide, top 68%, 368 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $399k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?