185 Hidden Loop · Arley, AL 35503

$399,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1930 1.53 ac lot $202/sqft · waterfront premium Est $376k · 6% over · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On the water! This beautifully updated Smith Lake Home is situated on 1.53 acres of prime land. Featuring 4 bedroom, 2 bathrooms, & thoughtfully updated throughout making the perfect primary lake dwelling or vacation home! Located just minutes from Duncan Bridge and the main body of water by boat. This home has been completely remodeled and features a semi-open floor plan, recessed lighting, all new flooring, cabinetry, paint, lighting, vanities, showers & more! The original stone accents, screened back porch & wood burning fire place set the tone for a relaxing & inviting atmosphere while taking in the lake views! The unfinished basement offers a clean slate to make into your own desired space, or keep as is for all of your lake gear storage needs. Whether you are in the market for a weekend escape, full time lake living, or rental investment, this property checks all the boxes, is turn key & move in ready!

Key facts

• Screened back porch
• Completely remodeled
• Semi-open floor plan

Tags

• 1.53 ACRES OF PRIME LAND
• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• SEMI-OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• ORIGINAL STONE ACCENTS
• SCREENED BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $375k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#187 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Curry Elementary School (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 547 students, 64% FRL); Curry Middle School (math 10% / reading 46%, grade F, #141 of 257 statewide, top 55%, 359 students, 68% FRL); Curry High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #195 of 305 statewide, top 68%, 368 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $399k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.64%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,140
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: 6.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
185 Hidden Loop	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (0%)	12mo	$150,000	$76	81
344 Gillespie Rd	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,264 (+14%)	3mo	$540,000	$239	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-25,238
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $28,957
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35503

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $894	-5% $756	+0% $618	+5% $480	+10% $342
Rent	-10% $280	-5% $449	+0% $618	+5% $787	+10% $955
Rate	-1.0pp $819	-0.5pp $719	base $618	+0.5pp $514	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9661 Curry Hwy #224 Jasper, AL	3.0	2.0	1450	$5,000	$3.45	46d	1	0.67mi
101 S Bay Dr Jasper, AL	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,925	$1.67	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $399,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $399,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $399,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $399,000 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    On the water! This beautifully updated Smith Lake Home is situated on 1.53 acres of prime land. Featuring 4 bedroom, 2 bathrooms, & thoughtfully updated throughout making the perfect primary lake dwelling or vacation home! Located just minutes from Duncan Bridge and the main body of water by boat. This home has been completely remodeled and features a semi-open floor plan, recessed lighting, all new flooring, cabinetry, paint, lighting, vanities, showers & more! The original stone accents, screened back porch & wood burning fire place set the tone for a relaxing & inviting atmosphere while taking in the lake views! The unfinished basement offers a clean slate to make into your own desired space, or keep as is for all of your lake gear storage needs. Whether you are in the market for a weekend escape, full time lake living, or rental investment, this property checks all the boxes, is turn key & move in ready!

19. 2026-03-24
    listed $410,000 Active 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    On the water! This beautifully updated Smith Lake Home is situated on 1.53 acres of prime land. Featuring 4 bedroom, 2 bathrooms, & thoughtfully updated throughout making the perfect primary lake dwelling or vacation home! Located just minutes from Duncan Bridge and the main body of water by boat. This home has been completely remodeled and features a semi-open floor plan, recessed lighting, all new flooring, cabinetry, paint, lighting, vanities, showers & more! The original stone accents, screened back porch & wood burning fire place set the tone for a relaxing & inviting atmosphere while taking in the lake views! The unfinished basement offers a clean slate to make into your own desired space, or keep as is for all of your lake gear storage needs. Whether you are in the market for a weekend escape, full time lake living, or rental investment, this property checks all the boxes, is turn key & move in ready!

20. 2025-12-05
    price $435,000
21. 2025-11-28
    price $435,000
22. 2025-11-21
    price $465,000
23. 2025-10-22
    price $479,900
24. 2025-10-21
    price $479,900
25. 2025-09-30
    price $489,900
26. 2025-09-29
    price $489,900
27. 2025-06-17
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,102
• − Management: −$4,102
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable income: $1,129
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$271
• After-tax cash flow: $7,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 0103450
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,664
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8321
• State rank: #89 of 129 in AL

Livability — Arley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #15542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,601

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.26%
• Current HPI: 172.9286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+166.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $399,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $410,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $435,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $435,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $465,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $479,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $479,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $489,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $489,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $457 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.