30 Winter Ave

Marlborough, MA 01752

$529,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · Built 1895 · MultiFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,657/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax + insurance: −$682
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,398
• Net cashflow: $1,798/mo
• Annual: $21,576/yr
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.54%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $148,372

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $530k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $899/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $530k).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($482k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $482k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#59 in MA, #3,372 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Marlborough (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #250 of 302 in MA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $148k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.0% in Marlborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,657/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 2171% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.