30 Winter Ave · Marlborough, MA 01752

$529,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1895 0.47 ac lot $419/sqft · 49% above area Est $674k · 21% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 30 Winter Ave, Marlborough, MA! Attention investors! Expansion possibilities in this truly one-of-a-kind 2-family! This unique property is off the beaten path with water and sunset views over Lake Williams, which has the largest boardwalk in the country! Both apartments have 2 bedrooms and a country kitchen. The layout is perfect for an extended family situation. There is ample off-street parking, public water/sewer, and a garden area. Superior access to Rt 495/290/85/20, shopping, restaurants, & the Apex Center is 5 minutes away. Both apartments are tenancy-at-will. Showings are ONLY on Saturdays, 12-3 pm, and on Wed & Fridays, 4-7 pm.

Key facts

• Water views
• Superior access
• Area for a garden

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• SUNSET VIEWS
• LARGEST BOARDWALK
• AMPLE OFF-STREET PARKING
• AREA FOR A GARDEN
• SUPERIOR ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $899/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $530k).
• Recommended offer: $482k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.9% in Marlborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#59 in MA, #3,372 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Marlborough (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #250 of 302 in MA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,657/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 2171% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $148k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($482k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $482,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.54%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $674,100
• List price: $529,900
• Delta: -21.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $16,521
• Equity at exit: $79,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $113,886
• Equity at exit: $45,816

Cash invested: $148,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01752

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$461 /mo · $5,537/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,398
• Net cashflow: $1,798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,381

Max offer price $529,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,098	-5% $1,948	+0% $1,798	+5% $1,648	+10% $1,498
Rent	-10% $1,272	-5% $1,535	+0% $1,798	+5% $2,061	+10% $2,324
Rate	-1.0pp $2,065	-0.5pp $1,933	base $1,798	+0.5pp $1,661	+1.0pp $1,521

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$6,658
Total (2 units)			$6,657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,475
• Closing costs: $15,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 Lincoln St Marlborough, MA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$3,773	$3.70	0d	52	0.71mi
57 Main St Marlborough, MA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$4,107	$4.57	0d	88	1.10mi
175 Maple St Marlborough, MA	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,500	$2.23	0d	1	1.11mi
1000 Bay Dr Marlborough, MA	1.0–2.0	1.0–3.0	1279	$5,020	$3.92	0d	1	1.30mi
155 Ames St Marlborough, MA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$3,415	$3.29	0d	17	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $529,900 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,900 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,900 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $529,900 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $529,900 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $529,900 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $529,900 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $529,900 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $529,900 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $529,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $529,900 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $529,900 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $529,900 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $529,900 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    price $529,900 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Welcome to 30 Winter Ave, Marlborough, MA! Attention investors! Expansion possibilities in this truly one-of-a-kind 2-family! This unique property is off the beaten path with water and sunset views over Lake Williams, which has the largest boardwalk in the country! Both apartments have 2 bedrooms and a country kitchen. The layout is perfect for an extended family situation. There is ample off-street parking, public water/sewer, and a garden area. Superior access to Rt 495/290/85/20, shopping, restaurants, & the Apex Center is 5 minutes away. Both apartments are tenancy-at-will. Showings are ONLY on Saturdays, 12-3 pm, and on Wed & Fridays, 4-7 pm.

16. 2026-03-01
    listed $549,900 New 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Welcome to 30 Winter Ave, Marlborough, MA! Attention investors! Expansion possibilities in this truly one-of-a-kind 2-family! This unique property is off the beaten path with water and sunset views over Lake Williams, which has the largest boardwalk in the country! Both apartments have 2 bedrooms and a country kitchen. The layout is perfect for an extended family situation. There is ample off-street parking, public water/sewer, and a garden area. Superior access to Rt 495/290/85/20, shopping, restaurants, & the Apex Center is 5 minutes away. Both apartments are tenancy-at-will. Showings are ONLY on Saturdays, 12-3 pm, and on Wed & Fridays, 4-7 pm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,537 · $461/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,027 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: +$490/yr (+$41/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,683
• − Property taxes: −$5,537
• − Insurance: −$2,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,391
• − Management: −$6,391
• − Depreciation: −$15,415
• Taxable income: $13,818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,316
• After-tax cash flow: $18,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlborough
• NCES district ID: 2507320
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,601
• Composite: 26.98/100
• National rank: #7072
• State rank: #250 of 302 in MA

Livability — Marlborough

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #3372

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlborough, MA
• County: Middlesex County · 1,437,704 people
• City population: 41,647
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• Population (ZIP): 41,647
• Household income: $91,968
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2171.0

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,740,269 people
• By 2030: 1,817,187 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 1,963,195 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 2,087,461 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 2,344,036 · +34.7%
• By 2100: 2,383,776 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 11% Lithuanian 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Other Indo-European 20% Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.5) · D 68.5% · R 29.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.3pp toward D · 2008: 30.1pp · 2024: 39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.5 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+38.1 2012: D+26.9 2008: D+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -415.20%
• Current HPI: 269.0905
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $529,900 MLS PIN
• 2026-03-01 Listed $549,900 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,537 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.