316 E Swink Ave

Fowler, CO 81039

$85,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $242/mo
• Annual: $2,898/yr
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.18%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#66 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Fowler School District No. R4J (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #80 of 176 in CO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.