316 E Swink Ave · Fowler, CO 81039

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1942 0.32 ac lot Est $144k · 41% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This Fowler rancher sits on a large lot with plenty of room to spread out, featuring an oversized detached garage and additional outbuildings for storage, hobbies, or workspace needs. The main level offers a comfortable layout with a living room at the front of the home, two bedrooms separated by a 3/4 bath, and a kitchen tucked toward the back with convenient access to the yard. Just off the kitchen is the laundry area, leading down a step into an addon master bedroom suite featuring an attached 3/4 bath. The master bedroom does not include a closet but offers flexible space and privacy from the rest of the home. Small unfinished basement allows for extra storage and the HVAC area. With am

Key facts

• Laundry area
• Large lot
• Attached 3/4 bath

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL OUTBUILDINGS
• LAUNDRY AREA
• ADDON MASTER BEDROOM SUITE
• ATTACHED 3/4 BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener (2 cars)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; One-story (main living on one level)
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Irregular lot; Outbuilding / shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Natural gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Master bedroom on main level; Double pane windows; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Unfinished partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#66 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Fowler School District No. R4J (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #80 of 176 in CO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.18%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,396
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 E Grant Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,053 (-8%)	11mo	$180,000	$171	61
707 7th St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,197 (+4%)	11mo	$144,000	$120	61
306 6th St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,217 (+6%)	9mo	$133,000	$109	59
412 W Florence Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,184 (+3%)	10mo	$124,200	$105	58
205 W Cranston Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,268 (+11%)	1mo	$135,000	$106	54
410 6th St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (-11%)	11mo	$77,000	$76	51
212 W Florence Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,186 (+4%)	18mo	$150,000	$126	50
607 8th St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	990 (-14%)	1mo	$165,000	$167	50
104 7th St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-8%)	13mo	$177,000	$167	48
502 8th St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,012 (-12%)	9mo	$157,000	$155	44
504 8th St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,268 (+11%)	22mo	$140,000	$110	40
412 10th St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,240 (+8%)	22mo	$156,000	$126	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $61,691
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $169,605
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81039

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $85,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-05-12
   listed $85,000 Active
9. 2026-04-30
   status Active
10. 2026-04-07
    status Active
11. 2026-03-14
    status Pending
12. 2026-01-23
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,007
• − Management: −$1,007
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$394
• After-tax cash flow: $2,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fowler School District No. R4J
• NCES district ID: 0804110
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,770
• Composite: 31.98/100
• National rank: #11024
• State rank: #80 of 176 in CO

Livability — Fowler

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #6320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fowler, CO
• Population (ZIP): 1,686

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,363 people
• By 2030: 16,776 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 15,534 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 14,467 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 12,054 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 9,392 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.5% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.96%
• Current HPI: 274.2024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $85,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $90,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $147 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.