33 Harbor View Dr

Springs, NY 11937

$5,495,000F

6 bd · 8.0 ba · 6,659 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 296 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,411/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,816
• Tax + insurance: −$9,225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,336
• Net cashflow: $-17,967/mo
• Annual: $-215,600/yr
• Cap rate: 2.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.96%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $1,538,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/8.0-bath land listed at $5.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18k ($-216k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.90M (47.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.54M (53.8% below list).
• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($4.84M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.54M (53.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $38k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $165k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $755k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $995k; list at $5.50M implies a 452% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $25,411/mo this rent would consume 235% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.