33 Harbor View Dr · Springs, NY 11937

$5,495,000

6 bd · 8.0 ba · 6,659 sqft · Land · 293 Days on market

Built 2025 1.20 ac lot $825/sqft · at area comps Est $5521k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in Ready! Set on 1.2 acres, this newly constructed net zero, completed contemporary estate, offers the perfect blend of luxury, privacy, and convenience. Just minutes from bay beaches, marinas, and fine dining, the home is 6 minutes to East Hampton Village and 4 minutes to Round Swamp Farmers Market. Designed with exceptional attention to detail, the residence features six bedrooms, seven full bathrooms, and two half baths, including two primary suites with spa-inspired bathrooms. Polished nickel fixtures, white oak hardwood floors, and a custom chef’s kitchen, highlighted by a striking copper hood, flow seamlessly into the family room with a fireplace, creating an elegant and functional gathering space. The lower level offers a gym and media room, ideal for recreation and relaxation. Outdoor amenities include an 18’ x 44’ heated gunite pool with integrated spa and an outdoor shower. Additional features include a two-car garage with an EV charger. The laundry room, with 2 washers and two dryers, a utility sink, and a pet shower station on the first floor and is an optional additional feature for the second floor. This luxury Hamptons home combines a sophisticated contemporary design, resort-style amenities, and exceptional attention to detail for serene, year-round coastal living.

Key facts

• 1.2 acres
• Outdoor shower
• Gym

Tags

• 1.2 ACRES
• HEATED GUNITE POOL
• INTEGRATED SPA
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• CUSTOM CHEF KITCHEN
• GYM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/8.0-bath land listed at $5.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18k ($-216k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.90M (47.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.54M (53.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.54M (53.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $25,411/mo this rent would consume 235% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $38k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $165k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($4.84M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $755k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $995k; list at $5.50M implies a 452% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,541,075 (53.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.96%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 18.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $5,521,217
• List price: $5,495,000
• Delta: -0.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-1,900,019
• Equity at exit: $819,322

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-2,515,049
• Equity at exit: $475,107

Cash invested: $1,538,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 18.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,816
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6,869 /mo · $82,425/yr
• Insurance: −$2,290
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,336
• Net cashflow: $-17,967

Break-even live

Break-even rent $48,153

Max offer price $2,895,194

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14,169	-5% $-16,068	+0% $-17,967	+5% $-19,865	+10% $-21,764
Rent	-10% $-19,974	-5% $-18,970	+0% $-17,967	+5% $-16,963	+10% $-15,959
Rate	-1.0pp $-15,199	-0.5pp $-16,569	base $-17,967	+0.5pp $-19,391	+1.0pp $-20,839

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,373,750
• Closing costs: $164,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 293 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 292 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 291 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 290 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 287 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 284 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 283 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 282 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 279 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 278 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 277 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 276 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 275 DOM
15. 2026-03-14
    price $5,995,000 1324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1324 chars)

    Move in Ready! Set on 1.2 acres, this newly constructed net zero, completed contemporary estate, offers the perfect blend of luxury, privacy, and convenience. Just minutes from bay beaches, marinas, and fine dining, the home is 6 minutes to East Hampton Village and 4 minutes to Round Swamp Farmers Market. Designed with exceptional attention to detail, the residence features six bedrooms, seven full bathrooms, and two half baths, including two primary suites with spa-inspired bathrooms. Polished nickel fixtures, white oak hardwood floors, and a custom chef’s kitchen, highlighted by a striking copper hood, flow seamlessly into the family room with a fireplace, creating an elegant and functional gathering space. The lower level offers a gym and media room, ideal for recreation and relaxation. Outdoor amenities include an 18’ x 44’ heated gunite pool with integrated spa and an outdoor shower. Additional features include a two-car garage with an EV charger. The laundry room, with 2 washers and two dryers, a utility sink, and a pet shower station on the first floor and is an optional additional feature for the second floor. This luxury Hamptons home combines a sophisticated contemporary design, resort-style amenities, and exceptional attention to detail for serene, year-round coastal living.

16. 2025-08-29
    listed $6,250,000 Active 1324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1324 chars)

    Move in Ready! Set on 1.2 acres, this newly constructed net zero, completed contemporary estate, offers the perfect blend of luxury, privacy, and convenience. Just minutes from bay beaches, marinas, and fine dining, the home is 6 minutes to East Hampton Village and 4 minutes to Round Swamp Farmers Market. Designed with exceptional attention to detail, the residence features six bedrooms, seven full bathrooms, and two half baths, including two primary suites with spa-inspired bathrooms. Polished nickel fixtures, white oak hardwood floors, and a custom chef’s kitchen, highlighted by a striking copper hood, flow seamlessly into the family room with a fireplace, creating an elegant and functional gathering space. The lower level offers a gym and media room, ideal for recreation and relaxation. Outdoor amenities include an 18’ x 44’ heated gunite pool with integrated spa and an outdoor shower. Additional features include a two-car garage with an EV charger. The laundry room, with 2 washers and two dryers, a utility sink, and a pet shower station on the first floor and is an optional additional feature for the second floor. This luxury Hamptons home combines a sophisticated contemporary design, resort-style amenities, and exceptional attention to detail for serene, year-round coastal living.

17. 2024-12-11
    historical
18. 2024-08-06
    price $1,850,000
19. 2024-06-05
    listed $1,650,000 Active
20. 2023-08-30
    soldstatus $995,000
21. 2001-08-25
    soldstatus $152,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $304,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$307,805
• − Property taxes: −$82,425
• − Insurance: −$28,273
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,394
• − Management: −$24,394
• − Depreciation: −$159,855
• Taxable loss: −$322,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77,332
• After-tax cash flow: $-138,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3844.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $5,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Listed $6,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $1,850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-05 Listed $1,650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $995,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,247 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.