1631 W 8th St

Ashtabula, OH 44004

$132,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $1,699/mo
• Annual: $20,388/yr
• Cap rate: 21.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.79%
• DSCR: 3.44
• 1% rule: 2.41%
• Cash to close: $37,212

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $133k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $919 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Superior Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,151 of 1,584 statewide, top 73%, 436 students, 0% FRL); Lakeside Junior High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #579 of 654 statewide, top 89%, 505 students, 0% FRL); Lakeside High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #644 of 781 statewide, top 85%, 894 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 63% district-wide (63 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $133k implies a 736% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 8.3% in Ashtabula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,199/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.