12 Lonran Dr

Gates, NY 14624

$175,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $193/mo
• Annual: $2,317/yr
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#582 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gates-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #491 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $175k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.9% in Gates — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.