12 Lonran Dr · Gates, NY 14624

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1955 0.32 ac lot $166/sqft · 30% below area Est $249k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom ranch home with large enclosed porch, hardwood floors, central air, and vinyl siding.

Key facts

• Deep farm-style sink
• Tiled shower
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• UPDATED QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CONTEMPORARY CABINETS
• DEEP FARM-STYLE SINK
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FULLY REFRESHED BATHROOM
• TILED SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electrical system
• Home design: Single-story house; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Living/dining room area; Pantry; Sunroom / Florida room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater; Home generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.9% in Gates — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#582 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gates-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #491 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $175k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,730
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -29.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Tarrytown Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5	950 (-10%)	1mo	$250,000	$263	67
20 Tarrytown Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	950 (-10%)	10mo	$235,000	$247	62
26 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	10mo	$159,900	$159	61
20 Bright Oaks Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+6%)	15mo	$218,000	$195	49
2876 Chili Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+9%)	1mo	$251,000	$218	48
874 Chili Center Coldwater Rd	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+4%)	22mo	$250,000	$226	47
31 Tarrytown Dr	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-10%)	23mo	$231,500	$244	44
40 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,204 (+14%)	15mo	$215,000	$179	42
80 Archer Rd	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,108 (+5%)	17mo	$250,000	$226	41
25 Bright Oaks Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	17mo	$225,000	$201	40
29 Westway	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,146 (+8%)	9mo	$250,000	$218	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,904
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,617
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14624

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$421 /mo · $5,052/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Mulcahy Blvd Unit 12-B Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,898	$1.81	2d	1	0.88mi
173 Bending Creek Rd Gates, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	860	$1,595	$1.85	2d	7	1.02mi
456 Westside Dr Unit 6 Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	994	$2,100	$2.11	3d	1	1.27mi
350 Westview Commons Blvd Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$1,860	$1.71	2d	13	1.42mi
50 Silverlight Way Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1210	$2,350	$1.94	14d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1965-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Under Contract 1965-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $175,000 Active 1965-char remark
4. 2020-04-29
   soldstatus $115,050
5. 2020-04-27
   soldstatus $115,050 Closed Sale or Rented 95-char remark

   Show marketing remark (95 chars)

   3 bedroom ranch home with large enclosed porch, hardwood floors, central air, and vinyl siding.

6. 2020-03-06
   status Pending Sale 95-char remark

   Show marketing remark (95 chars)

   3 bedroom ranch home with large enclosed porch, hardwood floors, central air, and vinyl siding.

7. 2020-02-25
   listed $85,000 Active 95-char remark

   Show marketing remark (95 chars)

   3 bedroom ranch home with large enclosed porch, hardwood floors, central air, and vinyl siding.

8. 1996-06-28
   soldstatus $79,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,052 · $421/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,052 · $421/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,052
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$83
• After-tax cash flow: $2,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gates-Chili Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,045
• Composite: 36.23/100
• National rank: #4719
• State rank: #491 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #582
• US rank: #10531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,626
• Household income: $87,989
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 267.356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+119.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $175,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $115,050 Public Records
• 2020-04-27 Sold (MLS) $115,050 UNYREIS
• 2020-03-06 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-02-25 Listed $85,000 UNYREIS
• 1996-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $79,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,052 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.