427 Macdonald Ave

North Bellport, NY 11713

$659,990C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,725 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 398 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $17,303/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,461
• Tax + insurance: −$1,100
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,634
• Net cashflow: $9,109/mo
• Annual: $109,304/yr
• Cap rate: 22.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.15%
• DSCR: 3.63
• 1% rule: 2.62%
• Cash to close: $184,797

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $660k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($109k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $660k).
• It's been on market 398 days — a 12% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $581k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#842 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• South Country Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #460 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $660k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $185k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 4.9% in North Bellport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 398 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.