427 Macdonald Ave · North Bellport, NY 11713

$659,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 398 Days on market

Built 2026 7,841 sqft lot $383/sqft · 19% above area Est $567k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction to be Completed by June 2026. Bellport New - The Bentley 4. Quality Craftsmanship 4 BR 2.5 baths 2 story with front porch, choice of kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, wood floors on 1st floor carpet in BRs, tiled baths, CAC, 200 amp service, full basement w/OSE, attached 1 car garage, appliance credit. Option to upgrade appliances from electric to gas., Additional information: Appearance: New

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 398 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $660k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($109k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $660k).
• Recommended offer: $581k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 4.9% in North Bellport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#842 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• South Country Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #460 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $185k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 398 days — a 12% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $660k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $580,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 398 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.15%
• DSCR: 3.63
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $566,771
• List price: $659,990
• Delta: 16.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
522 Scherger Ave	0.26mi	4/2.5	1,756 (+2%)	5mo	$550,000	$313	81
441 Macdonald Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,854 (+8%)	5mo	$565,000	$305	80
655 Bourdois Ave	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,758 (+2%)	2mo	$499,000	$284	78
661 Bourdois Ave	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,758 (+2%)	8mo	$499,990	$284	74
4 Danamarie Ln	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,722 (-0%)	1mo	$770,000	$447	70
6 Danamarie Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,765 (+2%)	8mo	$796,000	$451	64
333 Atlantic Ave	0.07mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,913 (+11%)	9mo	$475,000	$248	64
35 Maple Ave	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (+4%)	3mo	$514,000	$286	60
83 Bieselin Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,756 (+2%)	8mo	$645,000	$367	55
805 Doane Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-8%)	3mo	$405,000	$256	48
360 Munsell Rd	0.47mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,901 (+10%)	8mo	$570,000	$300	47
96 N Howells Point Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,872 (+8%)	8mo	$660,000	$353	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $473,451
• Equity at exit: $98,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $1,160,352
• Equity at exit: $57,064

Cash invested: $184,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11713

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $17,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$825 /mo · $9,900/yr
• Insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,634
• Net cashflow: $9,109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,773

Max offer price $659,990

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $164,998
• Closing costs: $19,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
718 Provost Ave Bellport, NY	4.0	1.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	43d	1	0.46mi
91 Circuit Rd Bellport, NY	3.0	1.5	1154	$4,500	$3.90	24d	1	0.65mi
262 N Dunton Ave East Patchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1778	$3,900	$2.19	13d	1	0.77mi
58 N Howells Point Rd Bellport, NY	3.0	2.0	1404	$15,000	$10.68	18d	1	0.93mi
21 N Howells Point Rd Bellport, NY	3.0	3.5	2148	$20,000	$9.31	1d	1	1.17mi
13 Colonial Ln Bellport, NY	3.0	2.0	1872	$20,000	$10.68	18d	1	1.23mi
11 Bieselin Rd Bellport, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$15,000	$8.71	43d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $659,990 Active 398 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $659,990 Active 397 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $659,990 Active 396 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $659,990 Active 395 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $659,990 Active 393 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $659,990 Active 392 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $659,990 Active 389 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $659,990 Active 388 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $659,990 Active 387 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $689,000 Active 384 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $689,000 Active 383 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $689,000 Active 382 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $689,000 Active 381 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $689,000 Active 380 DOM
15. 2026-04-12
    price $689,000 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    New Construction to be Completed by June 2026. Bellport New - The Bentley 4. Quality Craftsmanship 4 BR 2.5 baths 2 story with front porch, choice of kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, wood floors on 1st floor carpet in BRs, tiled baths, CAC, 200 amp service, full basement w/OSE, attached 1 car garage, appliance credit. Option to upgrade appliances from electric to gas., Additional information: Appearance: New

16. 2026-03-12
    price $699,000 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    New Construction to be Completed by June 2026. Bellport New - The Bentley 4. Quality Craftsmanship 4 BR 2.5 baths 2 story with front porch, choice of kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, wood floors on 1st floor carpet in BRs, tiled baths, CAC, 200 amp service, full basement w/OSE, attached 1 car garage, appliance credit. Option to upgrade appliances from electric to gas., Additional information: Appearance: New

17. 2026-02-20
    price $739,990 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    New Construction to be Completed by June 2026. Bellport New - The Bentley 4. Quality Craftsmanship 4 BR 2.5 baths 2 story with front porch, choice of kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, wood floors on 1st floor carpet in BRs, tiled baths, CAC, 200 amp service, full basement w/OSE, attached 1 car garage, appliance credit. Option to upgrade appliances from electric to gas., Additional information: Appearance: New

18. 2026-02-20
    status Active 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    New Construction to be Completed by June 2026. Bellport New - The Bentley 4. Quality Craftsmanship 4 BR 2.5 baths 2 story with front porch, choice of kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, wood floors on 1st floor carpet in BRs, tiled baths, CAC, 200 amp service, full basement w/OSE, attached 1 car garage, appliance credit. Option to upgrade appliances from electric to gas., Additional information: Appearance: New

19. 2025-01-23
    status Pending 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    New Construction to be Completed by June 2026. Bellport New - The Bentley 4. Quality Craftsmanship 4 BR 2.5 baths 2 story with front porch, choice of kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, wood floors on 1st floor carpet in BRs, tiled baths, CAC, 200 amp service, full basement w/OSE, attached 1 car garage, appliance credit. Option to upgrade appliances from electric to gas., Additional information: Appearance: New

20. 2024-05-13
    soldstatus $110,000
21. 2024-04-18
    listed $579,990 Active 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    New Construction to be Completed by June 2026. Bellport New - The Bentley 4. Quality Craftsmanship 4 BR 2.5 baths 2 story with front porch, choice of kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, wood floors on 1st floor carpet in BRs, tiled baths, CAC, 200 amp service, full basement w/OSE, attached 1 car garage, appliance credit. Option to upgrade appliances from electric to gas., Additional information: Appearance: New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $207,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,970
• − Property taxes: −$9,900
• − Insurance: −$3,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,611
• − Management: −$16,611
• − Depreciation: −$19,200
• Taxable income: $105,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,212
• After-tax cash flow: $84,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600008
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $74,049
• Composite: 44.75/100
• National rank: #5960
• State rank: #460 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Bellport

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #842
• US rank: #16345

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Bellport, NY
• City population: 9,236
• Population (ZIP): 9,236

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.23%
• Current HPI: 421.2165
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+18.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $689,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $739,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-18 Listed $579,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $632 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.