804 Walnut St

Thomson, IL 61285

$124,900C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · Built 1878 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $154/mo
• Annual: $1,846/yr
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#927 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• West Carroll CUSD 314 (rural): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #498 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Carroll Primary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,278 of 2,056 statewide, top 65%, 416 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll Middle School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 193 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll High School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #462 of 693 statewide, top 68%, 286 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $94k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.