804 Walnut St · Thomson, IL 61285

$124,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1878 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Move right in and enjoy the recent updates in this spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offering approximately 2,180 square feet of living space. Recent improvements include fresh interior paint, new flooring and carpet on main level, updated countertops, and newer stainless steel appliances, creating a clean and inviting feel throughout. The main level offers a large bedroom, spacious living and dining areas, convenient main-floor laundry, and flexible bonus space that could serve as a home office, hobby room, or additional storage. Upstairs you'll find additional bedrooms and extra living space to fit a variety of needs. Outside, you'll appreciate the detached heated 2.5-car garage featuring a

Key facts

• Flexible bonus space
• Recent updates
• New flooring

Tags

• RECENT UPDATES
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED COUNTERTOPS
• MAIN-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• FLEXIBLE BONUS SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; About 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with fuses
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One story
• Construction: Partial basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Quarter-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#927 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• West Carroll CUSD 314 (rural): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #498 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Carroll Primary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,278 of 2,056 statewide, top 65%, 416 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll Middle School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 193 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll High School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #462 of 693 statewide, top 68%, 286 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $94k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,026 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $37,507
• Equity at exit: $69,580

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $105,563
• Equity at exit: $119,107

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61285

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,145

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $189	+0% $154	+5% $119	+10% $83
Rent	-10% $48	-5% $101	+0% $154	+5% $207	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $186	base $154	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $124,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,370 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,603 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $1,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Carroll CUSD 314
• NCES district ID: 1700310
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,090
• Composite: 13.91/100
• National rank: #9483
• State rank: #498 of 620 in IL

Livability — Thomson

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #927
• US rank: #18008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thomson, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,687

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,010 people
• By 2030: 12,150 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 10,462 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 9,078 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 6,704 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 5,004 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.2% · R 64.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+29.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: D+1.4 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.84%
• Current HPI: 190.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+104.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $124,900 NWIAR
• 2022-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,370 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.