13714 Seneca Lake Dr

Texas City, TX 77568

$291,400D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,026 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 209 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,928/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,528
• Tax + insurance: −$684
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-298/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $81,592

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-298/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (1.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $291k).
• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,928/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?