13714 Seneca Lake Dr · Texas City, TX 77568

$291,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,026 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 209 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 6,242 sqft lot $144/sqft · 11% below area Est $327k · 11% under $125/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Vinyl plank flooring
• 6,242 sq ft lot

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-298/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (1.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $291k).
• Recommended offer: $256k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,928/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,432 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,393
• List price: $291,400
• Delta: -10.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13714 Seneca Lake Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,020 (-0%)	1mo	$291,400	$144	99
13216 Harbor Point Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,081 (+3%)	2mo	$375,990	$181	63
2211 Manila Ln	0.34mi	4/3.0	1,817 (-10%)	1mo	$295,000	$162	62
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-6%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	59
13421 Diamond Reef Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-6%)	1mo	$284,900	$150	58
14318 Lunan Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+12%)	1mo	$364,987	$160	53
13511 Golden Isle Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,150 (+6%)	2mo	$383,130	$178	51
2221 Lake Mist Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,178 (+8%)	0mo	$326,900	$150	51
3026 Banyan Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-9%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	48
13220 Harbor Point Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-10%)	1mo	$354,990	$195	46
13137 Leisure Cove Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-12%)	2mo	$309,900	$174	43
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-14%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-45,732
• Equity at exit: $43,449

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-29,053
• Equity at exit: $25,195

Cash invested: $81,592 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,528
• Tax from tax record: −$563 /mo · $6,756/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,959

Max offer price $287,015

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,850
• Closing costs: $8,742
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	0.78mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	11d	1	1.00mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

2. 2026-04-19
   status Active 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

3. 2026-04-02
   status Pending 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

4. 2026-03-05
   price $291,400 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

5. 2025-12-27
   price $316,400 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

6. 2025-12-13
   price $306,400 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

7. 2025-11-12
   price $296,400 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

8. 2025-10-09
   price $316,400 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

9. 2025-10-09
   price $316,900 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

10. 2025-09-26
    listed $311,900 Active 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

11. 2025-09-26
    historical

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Make your appointment to tour this 2020 from Adams Homes in Lago Mar! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a study, vinyl plank flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops and so much more. Come and make this home yours and enjoy the Crystal Lagoon for the summer!

12. 2025-05-05
    listed $311,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,756 · $563/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,756 · $563/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,323
• − Property taxes: −$6,756
• − Insurance: −$1,457
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,810
• − Management: −$2,810
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,477
• Taxable loss: −$5,004
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2020 single-family home in Texas City, TX is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping around the home — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Freshens up the bathrooms and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping around the home — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Freshens up the bathrooms and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $291,400 HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $316,400 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $306,400 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $296,400 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $316,400 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $316,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $311,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $311,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+88.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,756 · +262.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.