406 4th Ave

Scotchtown, NY 10941

$39,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,212/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $1,478/mo
• Annual: $17,732/yr
• Cap rate: 51.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 162.38%
• DSCR: 8.22
• 1% rule: 5.67%
• Cash to close: $10,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#515 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $39k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 51.8% vs local median 3.7% in Scotchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.