406 4th Ave · Scotchtown, NY 10941

$39,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic opportunity to own your own home. Two bedrooms and one full bath, two decks, central a/c. Parking for two cars. Storage shed. Eat in kitchen with lots of cabinet space. Large living room. Ceiling fans and natural light. Big primary bedroom with double closet. ** MUST BE OWNER OCCUPIED - NO RENTALS *** . Valley View Mobile Home Park. Monthly lot rent of $930 includes tax, water, garbage, recycling and road maintenance. Must be owner occupied and may qualify for a STAR rebate. Park rules require 650 or better credit score, verifiable income, background and credit check, , no commercial vehicles and 1 dog under 25 pounds. Proof of funds required for all offers. CASH only. SentriKey on front door. - 1973 SunCoast - 65 x 14 =-910 square feet. Serial # 50810

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1973
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 51.8% vs local median 3.7% in Scotchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#515 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $39k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 51.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 162.38%
• DSCR: 8.22
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.07×
• Total profit: $88,160
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.27×
• Total profit: $199,465
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10941

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $1,478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    listed $39,000 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity to own your own home. Two bedrooms and one full bath, two decks, central a/c. Parking for two cars. Storage shed. Eat in kitchen with lots of cabinet space. Large living room. Ceiling fans and natural light. Big primary bedroom with double closet. ** MUST BE OWNER OCCUPIED - NO RENTALS *** . Valley View Mobile Home Park. Monthly lot rent of $930 includes tax, water, garbage, recycling and road maintenance. Must be owner occupied and may qualify for a STAR rebate. Park rules require 650 or better credit score, verifiable income, background and credit check, , no commercial vehicles and 1 dog under 25 pounds. Proof of funds required for all offers. CASH only. SentriKey on front door. - 1973 SunCoast - 65 x 14 =-910 square feet. Serial # 50810

17. 2004-01-27
    soldstatus $14,000 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Mobile Home in Valley View Park. .. Very Well Kept Park/Convenient Location and close to shops, mall, train, bus, hospital, restaurants. Very affordable for the empty nester or starters. Better than paying Rent!! Large Rooms!! Call f or appointment.

18. 2004-01-05
    historical 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Mobile Home in Valley View Park. .. Very Well Kept Park/Convenient Location and close to shops, mall, train, bus, hospital, restaurants. Very affordable for the empty nester or starters. Better than paying Rent!! Large Rooms!! Call f or appointment.

19. 2004-01-05
    price $16,000 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Mobile Home in Valley View Park. .. Very Well Kept Park/Convenient Location and close to shops, mall, train, bus, hospital, restaurants. Very affordable for the empty nester or starters. Better than paying Rent!! Large Rooms!! Call f or appointment.

20. 2003-12-02
    listed $14,000 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Mobile Home in Valley View Park. .. Very Well Kept Park/Convenient Location and close to shops, mall, train, bus, hospital, restaurants. Very affordable for the empty nester or starters. Better than paying Rent!! Large Rooms!! Call f or appointment.

21. 2003-01-29
    soldstatus $13,000
22. 2003-01-14
    price $14,000
23. 2003-01-14
    historical
24. 2002-11-08
    listed $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,123
• − Management: −$2,123
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $18,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,367
• After-tax cash flow: $13,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scotchtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #9142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,422
• Household income: $99,238
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 525.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 21% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.38%
• Current HPI: 326.3597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.15%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $39,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-27 Sold (MLS) $14,000 HGMLS
• 2004-01-05 Price Changed $16,000 HGMLS
• 2004-01-05 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2003-12-02 Listed $14,000 HGMLS
• 2003-01-29 Sold (MLS) $13,000 HGMLS
• 2003-01-14 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2003-01-14 Price Changed $14,000 HGMLS
• 2002-11-08 Listed $13,000 HGMLS