612 Orchard Dr SW

Desert Aire, WA 99349

$249,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,386/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-565/mo
• Annual: $-6,776/yr
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.72%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-565 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (44.3% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (44.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-260 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#409 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wahluke School District (rural): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #272 of 291 in WA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Saddle Mountain Elementary (400 students, 94% FRL); Wahluke Junior High (569 students, 96% FRL); Wahluke High School (797 students, 97% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 559 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grant County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $249k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.7% in Desert Aire — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.