612 Orchard Dr SW · Desert Aire, WA 99349

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1994 9,958 sqft lot $165/sqft · 29% below area Est $353k · 29% under $65/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled on a desirable corner lot in the heart of Desert Aire with river and mountain view. In addition, the adjoining lot is available for sale for $75,000 and seller requests they be sold together. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, savvy investor, or visionary builder, this property checks all the boxes. The Home is ready for immediate occupancy or renovation. This is the kind of home that is increasingly hard to find at this price in Desert Aire but, what truly sets this listing apart is the adjacent lot on the north side, also available for purchase. Whether you envision an expanded yard, a guest home, a vacation rental, or

Key facts

• Expanded yard
• Cul-de-sac living
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VIEW
• ADJACENT LOT AVAILABLE
• EXPANDED YARD
• CUL-DE-SAC LIVING
• RECREATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area 1,512 sq ft; Lot approximately 0.2286 acre (dimensions approx 120 x 93 x 91 x 85); Lot number 77; Public records used for square footage and lot size
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash and Conventional
• HOA & community: Desert Aire HOA with $65 monthly association fee (includes common area maintenance); Community features include airport/runway, athletic court, boat launch, CCRs, clubhouse, golf, park, playground, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV parking
• Security: Partially fenced yard
• Utilities: Electric power; Community water; Septic sewer; Power provided by Grant County PUD; Water provided by Desert Aire HOA
• Home design: Manufactured on land (double wide); One story; Main level entry; Faces north
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; Effective year built 1994
• Exterior features: Wood products siding; Deck; Partially fenced; Outbuildings; RV parking; Corner lot; Has view; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level) with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining room; Walk-in closet(s); Water heater (electric, located in closet)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup (water heater closet noted)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.7% in Desert Aire — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#409 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wahluke School District (rural): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #272 of 291 in WA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Saddle Mountain Elementary (400 students, 94% FRL); Wahluke Junior High (569 students, 96% FRL); Wahluke High School (797 students, 97% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 559 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-260 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Grant County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $249k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,589
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -29.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
702 Bryce Pl SW	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	8mo	$305,000	$202	78
308 Spring Cir SW	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-3%)	6mo	$250,000	$171	66
327 Buttercup Ln SW	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	12mo	$408,500	$270	66
312 W Buttercup Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	10mo	$350,000	$231	63
101 Lake Pl SW #328	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	2mo	$355,500	$253	54
515 SW Tyler Pl SW	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	21mo	$360,000	$278	51
411 SW Summer Pl	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+7%)	22mo	$385,000	$238	49
205 Fairway Pl SW	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	4mo	$440,000	$340	48
403 Apple Pl SW	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	1mo	$375,000	$289	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-23,644
• Equity at exit: $71,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-8,819
• Equity at exit: $84,325

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99349

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,221/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,101

Max offer price $207,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-167	+0% $-238	+5% $-308	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-380	-5% $-309	+0% $-238	+5% $-166	+10% $-95
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-174	base $-238	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Spring Cir Mattawa, WA	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,800	$1.06	45d	1	0.51mi
860 Desert Aire Dr SW Mattawa, WA	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,800	$0.94	15d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $249,000 Active
2. 2005-11-01
   soldstatus $90,000
3. 1996-08-14
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,221 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,440 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,221
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$7,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,750
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wahluke School District
• NCES district ID: 5309360
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,193
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #12937
• State rank: #272 of 291 in WA

Livability — Desert Aire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #16373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Desert Aire, WA
• Population (ZIP): 8,098

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,356 people
• By 2030: 102,107 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 108,318 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 114,712 · +15.5%
• By 2075: 131,376 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 146,163 · +47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 23% White 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 79%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · Canada
• Languages at home: 20% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.5) · D 30.0% · R 67.4% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -37.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.5 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+37.9 2012: R+32.6 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.10%
• Current HPI: 208.856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+398.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $249,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,221 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.