406 W Lake St

Pana, IL 62557

$10,500D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 916 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-265/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $29,673

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-265/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($899 rent vs $10k).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $9k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $732 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#599 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pana CUSD 8 (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #360 of 620 in IL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elem School (299 students, 0% FRL); Pana Jr High School (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #410 of 665 statewide, top 62%, 264 students, 0% FRL); Pana Sr High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 392 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 15.1% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Christian County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?