2825 Saginaw Dr

Poland, OH 44514

$220,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,941 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,083/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,994/yr
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (5.3% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $208k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in OH, #1,108 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Poland Local (suburban): math 70% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #94 of 656 in OH (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.4% in Poland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.