2825 Saginaw Dr · Poland, OH 44514

$220,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,941 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1959 0.46 ac lot Est $281k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Probate Sale

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.4% in Poland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in OH, #1,108 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Poland Local (suburban): math 70% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #94 of 656 in OH (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $208,292 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,445
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2959 Holyoke Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,965 (+1%)	6mo	$284,500	$145	77
6534 Diana Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0	1,888 (-3%)	3mo	$282,000	$149	75
2949 Algonquin Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,942 (+0%)	8mo	$239,000	$123	72
2721 Algonquin Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,878 (-3%)	7mo	$289,900	$154	67
3151 Heatherbrae Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,720 (-11%)	4mo	$277,400	$161	59
2979 Saginaw Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,184 (+12%)	10mo	$305,000	$140	56
2838 Coblentz Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,686 (-13%)	8mo	$240,000	$142	48
3064 Howell Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,793 (-8%)	7mo	$210,000	$117	45
8 Centennial Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,188 (+13%)	8mo	$342,500	$157	41
25 Water St	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,096 (+8%)	9mo	$225,000	$107	40
6845 Katahdin Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,217 (+14%)	7mo	$355,000	$160	39
2407 Clyde St	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,728 (-11%)	10mo	$207,000	$120	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,061
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-8,170
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44514

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,808/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2670 Center Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	2.5	1722	$2,500	$1.45	21d	1	0.16mi
465 W Omar St Struthers, OH	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,800	$1.17	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,120 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: +$312/yr (+$26/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,808
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$392
• After-tax cash flow: $2,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poland Local
• NCES district ID: 3904834
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,236
• Composite: 64.21/100
• National rank: #564
• State rank: #94 of 656 in OH

Livability — Poland

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mahoning County · 84,956 people
• City population: 23,917
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,917
• Household income: $79,808
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 411.0

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.78%
• Current HPI: 210.5511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-12 Listed $220,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,808 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.