9417 N Dixon Ave

Lubbock, TX 79415

$98,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,144/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $226/mo
• Annual: $2,714/yr
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.89%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $27,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• New Deal ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #368 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Deal El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 275 students, 73% FRL); New Deal Middle (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 235 students, 72% FRL); New Deal H S (math 57% / reading 64%, grade C+, #265 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 244 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 53% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.