278 Cranberry Hole Rd

Napeague, NY 11930

$2,695,000C+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,796 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $30,631/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,133
• Tax + insurance: −$2,925
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,432
• Net cashflow: $7,141/mo
• Annual: $85,686/yr
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.09%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $754,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.69M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($86k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($31k rent vs $2.69M).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.61M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.61M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,184 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Amagansett Union Free School District (town): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #106 of 755 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Amagansett School (math 74% / reading 74%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 125 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 24% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $755k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$187k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $30,631/mo this rent would consume 298% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.