36 Saint Kitts

Dana Point, CA 92629

$1,430,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,631 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,554/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,499
• Tax + insurance: −$1,668
• HOA: −$358
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,376
• Net cashflow: $-4,347/mo
• Annual: $-52,167/yr
• Cap rate: 2.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.03%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $400,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.43M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-52k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $662k (53.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $655k (54.2% below list).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $655k (54.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $128k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $118k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#398 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Capistrano Unified (suburban): math 50% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #64 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John Malcom Elementary (548 students, 29% FRL); Marco Forster Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,082 students, 70% FRL); Dana Hills High (math 43% / reading 68%, grade C, #246 of 1,170 statewide, top 21%, 1,965 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 19% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Capistrano Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $790k; list at $1.43M implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$205k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 2→7/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.5% in Dana Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.