36 Saint Kitts · Dana Point, CA 92629

$1,430,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1986 4,200 sqft lot $877/sqft · 18% below area Est $1739k · 18% under $358/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the prestigious Monarch Beach community in the Antigua Neighborhood, a 24-hour guard-gated enclave offering unparalleled security and exclusivity. This home, located on a private and quiet cul-de-sac, features an open floor plan with high ceilings, creating a spacious and airy ambiance. It includes two bedrooms upstairs, a large den downstairs that can serve as an office, a balcony for relaxing views, and a cozy living room with a fireplace. The property is equipped boasts a charming patio area perfect for outdoor dining or unwinding. Although it needs some work, this home provides a fantastic opportunity to customize and make it your own. Ideally situated, it's just a short stro

Key facts

• Private cul de sac
• Guard gated enclave
• 4,200 sq ft lot

Tags

• GUARD GATED ENCLAVE
• PRIVATE CUL DE SAC
• BALCONY FOR RELAXING VIEWS
• SHORT STROLL TO THE BEACH
• NEAR DANA POINT HARBOR
• NEAR LANTERN DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.43M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-52k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $662k (53.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $655k (54.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $655k (54.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.5% in Dana Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#398 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Capistrano Unified (suburban): math 50% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #64 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John Malcom Elementary (548 students, 29% FRL); Marco Forster Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,082 students, 70% FRL); Dana Hills High (math 43% / reading 68%, grade C, #246 of 1,170 statewide, top 21%, 1,965 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 19% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Capistrano Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $128k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $118k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$205k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $790k; list at $1.43M implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 2→7/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $655,402 (54.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.03%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 18.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,739,259
• List price: $1,430,000
• Delta: -17.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24232 Porto Nuovo	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,625 (-0%)	2mo	$2,350,000	$1,446	61
23731 Colima Bay	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,542 (-6%)	1mo	$2,850,000	$1,848	60
33003 Christina	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-12%)	4mo	$1,550,000	$1,076	55
23915 Danzig	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (-3%)	9mo	$2,300,000	$1,447	55
24851 Seagate	0.71mi	2/2.5	1,748 (+7%)	2mo	$1,545,000	$884	53
24 Imperatrice	0.47mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,789 (+10%)	4mo	$1,851,000	$1,035	52
33792 Blue Lantern St	0.62mi	2/2.5	1,502 (-8%)	8mo	$2,515,000	$1,674	51
23835 BLUEHILL Bay	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (+8%)	7mo	$3,300,000	$1,881	50
24135 Windward Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,515 (-7%)	9mo	$2,700,000	$1,782	48
23782 Perth Bay	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,758 (+8%)	6mo	$2,610,000	$1,485	40
33551 Sandcastle Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,819 (+12%)	8mo	$1,560,000	$858	36
23741 Montego Bay	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (-13%)	6mo	$4,200,000	$2,947	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.28% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $345,282
• Equity at exit: $1,113,500

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $1,225,463
• Equity at exit: $2,236,636

Cash invested: $400,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92629

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 18.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,499
• Tax from tax record: −$1,072 /mo · $12,864/yr
• Insurance: −$596
• HOA: −$358
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,376
• Net cashflow: $-4,347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,057

Max offer price $662,041

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,538	-5% $-3,942	+0% $-4,347	+5% $-4,752	+10% $-5,157
Rent	-10% $-4,865	-5% $-4,606	+0% $-4,347	+5% $-4,088	+10% $-3,829
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,627	-0.5pp $-3,984	base $-4,347	+0.5pp $-4,718	+1.0pp $-5,095

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $357,500
• Closing costs: $42,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Saint John Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	2018	$6,150	$3.05	45d	1	0.15mi
31 Antigua Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	2100	$6,000	$2.86	1d	1	0.19mi
24301 Taxco Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1213	$4,950	$4.08	16d	1	0.19mi
37 Regina Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1960	$7,500	$3.83	1d	1	0.32mi
5 Duquesa Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1969	$6,000	$3.05	1d	1	0.36mi
25 Centre Ct #90 Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1357	$7,000	$5.16	45d	1	0.37mi
6 Marquesa Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1969	$11,000	$5.59	45d	1	0.37mi
33565 Via Corvalian Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1422	$6,500	$4.57	45d	1	0.40mi
33581 Moonsail Dr Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$6,500	$4.33	45d	1	0.41mi
24412 Lantern Hill Dr Unit E Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1106	$4,250	$3.84	45d	1	0.41mi
32 Dauphin Dana Point, CA	3.0	3.0	1603	$11,750	$7.33	20d	1	0.42mi
21 Tennis Villas Dr #64 Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1357	$5,250	$3.87	1d	1	0.42mi
33611 Marlinspike Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	3.0	1949	$11,000	$5.64	45d	1	0.42mi
33391 Periwinkle Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1782	$15,000	$8.42	20d	1	0.43mi
33611 Flying Jib Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1482	$9,000	$6.07	45d	1	0.43mi
7 Wimbledon Ct Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1450	$5,600	$3.86	26d	1	0.44mi
33232 Christina Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$5,400	$4.29	26d	1	0.46mi
33651 Crossjack Dr Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1628	$12,000	$7.37	12d	1	0.47mi
24561 Harbor View Dr #13 Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1685	$5,100	$3.03	16d	1	0.49mi
33681 Marlinspike Dr Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$7,500	$5.00	45d	1	0.49mi
33672 Chula Vista Ave Unit C Dana Point, CA	3.0	3.0	2200	$7,495	$3.41	9d	1	0.50mi
24601 Harbor View Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	3.0	1685	$5,395	$3.20	19d	1	0.50mi
24601 Harbor View Dr Unit B Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1685	$5,395	$3.20	16d	1	0.50mi
33721 Flying Jib Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$8,500	$6.07	45d	1	0.54mi
33685 Granada Dr Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1986	$6,900	$3.47	45d	1	0.56mi
32951 Danapine Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1837	$7,800	$4.25	45d	1	0.59mi
33212 Ocean Bright Dana Point, CA	2.0	3.0	1334	$4,400	$3.30	6d	1	0.59mi
50 Corniche Dr Unit G Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1165	$4,995	$4.29	20d	1	0.62mi
33431 Nottingham Way Unit A Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,750	$3.39	9d	1	0.62mi
68 Corniche Dr Unit B Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1130	$5,995	$5.31	45d	1	0.62mi
54 Corniche Dr Unit D Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1165	$4,500	$3.86	45d	1	0.62mi
24065 Windward Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	3.5	1750	$10,000	$5.71	45d	1	0.62mi
33792 Chula Vista Ave Dana Point, CA	3.0	3.0	1400	$7,950	$5.68	45d	1	0.63mi
25 Ville Franche Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$11,000	$5.50	45d	1	0.64mi
56 Sea Terrace St Dana Point, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	856	$3,830	$4.47	1d	19	0.65mi
33792 Granada Dr Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$5,500	$4.58	6d	1	0.66mi
10 Corniche Dr Unit E Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1130	$4,500	$3.98	45d	1	0.67mi
24612 Polaris Dr #271 Dana Point, CA	3.0	3.0	2090	$6,000	$2.87	45d	1	0.67mi
23862 Marmara Bay Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1589	$8,300	$5.22	26d	1	0.68mi
24076 Gourami Bay Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1698	$6,950	$4.09	45d	1	0.69mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $358 · $4,296/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $1,430,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-05-02
   status Active
3. 2026-04-22
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-04-22
   status Active
5. 2026-04-20
   historical
6. 2026-04-08
   status Active
7. 2026-03-25
   status Active
8. 2026-03-07
   status Pending Sale
9. 2026-01-14
   status Active
10. 2026-01-14
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2025-11-25
    listed $1,430,000 Active
12. 2025-03-14
    status Active
13. 2025-02-26
    status Active
14. 2025-02-10
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2024-08-23
    listed $1,480,000 Active
16. 2024-08-08
    historical
17. 2018-10-16
    status Active
18. 2018-10-16
    historical
19. 2018-09-02
    status Pending Sale
20. 2018-09-01
    historical Hold Do Not Show
21. 2018-08-21
    price $785,000
22. 2018-08-10
    price $810,000
23. 2018-07-30
    listed $839,000 Active
24. 2013-05-05
    historical Hold
25. 2013-05-01
    listed $650,000 Active
26. 2005-05-09
    soldstatus $790,000
27. 2005-05-09
    soldstatus $790,000
28. 2005-03-23
    listed $790,000
29. 2003-10-28
    soldstatus $550,000
30. 1998-07-24
    soldstatus $324,000
31. 1991-04-09
    soldstatus $285,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,864 · $1,072/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,864 · $1,072/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 2 d/yr ≥84°F today · 7 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$80,102
• − Property taxes: −$12,864
• − Insurance: −$7,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,292
• − Management: −$6,292
• − HOA: −$4,296
• − Depreciation: −$41,600
• Taxable loss: −$79,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19,187
• After-tax cash flow: $-32,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Capistrano Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607440
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $99,673
• Composite: 56.56/100
• National rank: #1147
• State rank: #64 of 517 in CA

Livability — Dana Point

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #13526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dana Point, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 32,790
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,579
• Household income: $142,807
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1161.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.28%
• Current HPI: 461.7852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+400.9% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-01-14 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-14 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $1,430,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-14 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-02-26 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-02-10 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2024-08-23 Listed $1,480,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-08 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2018-10-16 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2018-10-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-09-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-09-01 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2018-08-21 Price Changed $785,000 CRMLS
• 2018-08-10 Price Changed $810,000 CRMLS
• 2018-07-30 Listed $839,000 CRMLS
• 2013-05-05 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2013-05-01 Listed $650,000 CRMLS
• 2005-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $790,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-09 Sold (MLS) $790,000 CRMLS
• 2005-03-23 Listed $790,000 CRMLS
• 2003-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $324,000 Public Records
• 1991-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $285,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,864 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.