105 21st St

Carbon Hill, AL 35587

$118,400C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$621
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $130/mo
• Annual: $1,565/yr
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $33,152

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($819 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#208 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carbon Hill Elementaryjunior High School (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #442 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 492 students, 70% FRL); Carbon Hill High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 359 students, 66% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $118k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.